Base on Blog(s)

Tuesday Update

2006-08-29T13:57:00.000-05:00

The two worst teams in the AL could end up playing large roles in the Wild Card picture this week:

The league-worst Royals meet the Wild Card-leading Twins for three games starting tonight. The Royals are throwing staff ace(?) Mark Redman (5.85 ERA) up against youngster Matt Garza (6.59 ERA), who is coming off of his first successful major league start. Since the All-Star break and more importantly the emergence of third baseman Mark Teahen, the Royals haven't been as dreadful as many people give them credit for. True, their pitching is still abysmal most of the time, but the lineup has some interesting pieces in David DeJesus and the aforementioned Teahen. Teahen hasn't been merely good since his return from Omaha, he's been incredible. Since his callup, Teahen is hitting .324/.401/.585 and posting a fielding RATE of 109. Not all is depressing in KC.

The Devil Rays are by all accounts a horrible team, although the discarding of Russell Branyan and callup of Delmon Young are steps in the right direction. Once retreads like Travis Lee and Greg Norton are excorsized from the roster, the team can really start to look towards, say, not losing 100 games every year. The White Sox host the D'Rays tonight as Casey Fossum takes on Freddy Garcia. The White Sox pitching woes have kept them a game behind the Twins in the Wild Card to this point, and things aren't looking too rosy for Ozzie's Sox. Care to field a guess on who possesses the lower ERA between tonight's two starters? A hint: it's not Freddy Garcia.

Monday Update

2006-08-28T23:14:00.000-05:00

David Wright had a good day today, notching an RBI in a Mets win over the Phillies. However, Wright hasn't enjoyed many good days at the plate since his torrid first half. Looking over the splits, the discrepancy between Wright's first-half numbers and his numbers since the All-Star break is glaring. Pre All-Star, Wright posted a line of .316/.386/.575 with 20 home runs. Since then the Mets' third baseman is hitting .241/.331/.358 with only two home runs. Essentially, a third of Wright's production has been shaved off. Since posting a 1.049 OPS in June, Wright has steadily declined, case in point being his .563 mark in August. Around the trade deadline much was made of Bobby Abreu's atrophied skillset and the home run derby's effect on his power numbers. It appears David Wright may have the same problem to a much greater degree. Wright hasn't been horrible in the on-base department, but his .358 slugging percentage since the break speaks volumes about his power struggles. Wright's difficulties lead me to wonder why we heard so much about the "failure" that was Alex Rodriguez and his .694 OPS in June. Could be the salary, but still...I'd rather be a Yankee fan than a Mets fan right now.

The Red Sox have their backs against the wall tonight as they head to Oakland for the first of three. Tonight has bad news written all over it for the Sox considering Jon Lester has been scratched and is being replaced by emergency callup Kason Gabbard. True, Lester hasn't been good in a few starts, and the rest is probably a good call after taking into account the hopelessness of the Red Sox' situation. Boston will have its hands full against Esteban Loaiza tonight. The usually horrible Loaiza has been strangely outstanding of late, heading into tonight hoping to finish August without a loss. Loaiza has held hitters to a .229 batting average in the last month, ceding only 1.77 earned runs per nine innings. After stringing together three months worth of atrocious pitching and effectively scutting the A's chances every fifth day, Loaiza's hot streak has helped the A's take a strong hold of the AL West playoff spot.

Sunday Update

2006-08-27T20:20:00.000-05:00

The Cardinals have an opportunity to put even more distance between themselves and the pack in the NL Central tonight. The Reds suffered a defeat at the hands of the Giants for the third straight day. With a win, the Cardinals will move three games up on the Reds and seven up on the third-place Astros. Tonight's assignment isn't the toughest, as the Cubs are throwing yet another rookie on the fire in the guise of Les Walrond. I'm rooting for the 29 year-old Walrond tonight not only because he's been an organizational soldier for forever and a day but because he is a former Kansas Jayhawk. I've been waiting all year for the Cubs to call Walrond up to assist their depleted pitching staff, and it appears today is the day. Walrond has been decent if a bit wild in the minors this year, and he hasn't been too horrible tonight. He's a lefty with a pretty good curveball and a low-90's fastball that lacks movement. Walrond has given up two runs in just over two innings thus far, although the runs came on an egregious Jacque Jones error out in right field. I'm also rooting vehemently against the Cardinals because Tony LaRussa is using Preston Wilson in the leadoff spot tonight. Tony LaRussa: complete idiot.

The Phillies picked up another ancient but useful part today, stealing Jeff Conine from the Orioles for cash considerations. The Orioles had no use for Conine, so it was nice of them to let him finish up with a contender. The Phils aren't weak at the corner outfield spots, but they could use some depth off of the bench to counteract Charlie Manuel's regularization of the uber-horrible Abraham Nunez. At this point in his career Conine is suited perfectly for this sort of role, and the Phillies are certainly the better for this acquisition.

Saturday Wrapup

2006-08-27T00:45:00.000-05:00

For the second straight day, things didn't go all that well for the top two teams in the AL East.

The Yankees lost to the Angels, bringing their season mark to 3-6 against Los Angeles. The Yankee hitters did an admirable job of playing catchup all day but the New York pitching proved too abysmal to overcome. Cory Lidle had his first disaster as a Yankee, leaving in the 4th after allowing five across the plate. Aside from recent callup Brian Bruney, the New York relievers were miserable as well. Four Yankee pitchers allowed seven runs in four and a third innings, allowing twelve baserunners in the process. It looks like the Yankees' pen problems can be traced back to the lack of rest that last weekend's monster series in Boston allowed for. Normally accountable pitchers like Ron Villone and Mike Myers have been horrid of late, today being the most recent example. Matt Karstens is scheduled to start tomorrow for the Yankees, but I don't think the bleeding will stop until the team gets a day off to rest their weary arms.

Fortunately for the Yankees, the Red Sox are in a vessel in a similar state of disrepair. However, the Red Sox' boat has already taken on about five and a half games of water. For the second straight night, the Red Sox failed to defeat a fairly mediocre Seattle team. The Red Sox didn't crush the ball by any means today, picking up seven hits and three runs. It was the pitching that was most frustrating for the BoSox, however, as they surrendered the lead on three different occasions en route to a 4-3 loss. David Wells, who seems to be rounding (har har har) into playing shape, gave Boston seven good innings but Mike Timlin let the M's back into the picture on the shoulders of an Adrian Beltre home run and a sacrifice fly. The 40 year-old Timlin has looked weary of late, perhaps because of last weekend's marathon series. No matter how you slice it, the Red Sox and Yankees are both struggling. Thanks to a fairly plush cushion of five and a half games, however, the Yankees don't have nearly the cause for panic that the Sox do.

The Angels and the Mariners are most likely not playoff-bound. However, they aren't bad teams in any way, shape, or form. Teams with good bullpens and decent lineups can and will turn out to be pretty darn annoying to the contending teams as we move into the final month of the season.

Friday Update

2006-08-25T15:27:00.000-05:00

The huge - nay, gargantuan series of the weekend starts tonight in Chicago where the Twins will try to flip the AL Wild Card over and take the lead over the White Sox. Tonight it's 'Advantage: Twins' with the steady Brad Radke throwing against Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has often been shaky this season as his 5.13 ERA suggests. His performances against the Twins haven't been pretty by any account, as he's racked up an ERA of 6.87 in six career starts. Watching Vazquez work, it's apparent that he is a decent enough pitcher. He gets many strikeouts, generally issues few walks, and has great movement on his fastball. His problem area has been the gopher ball, as he has given up more than one per 9 innings for five straight seasons. The Twins' lineup is not overly power-centric, but Justin Morneau and Torii Hunter are both in the midst of hot streaks and could do some harm to Vazquez if he doesn't work down in the zone. Brad Radke, a 33 year-old in what appears to be his last season, has enjoyed a successful and resurgent campaign in 2006. After an abysmal start to the season, Radke has righted both his own ship and the team's, using his pinpoint control and mean change-up to put up another year of league-average or better performance. Wracked by injury, Radke is clearly not the same pitcher he has been, as his .303 BAA and 4.8 K's per 9 IP suggest. However, he's been an important a cog as any in a Minnesota machine that could very well be playoff bound.

Thursday Wrapup

2006-08-24T23:12:00.000-05:00

A quick rundown of today's happenings:

The Twins kept pace with the White Sox, beating up on Kris Benson and the O's to remain half a game back in the Wild Card. Rookie Boof Bonser threw his finest game thus far, going 6+ with only two runs allowed.
Much thanks to Bill Hall and Prince Fielder's home runs, Tomo Ohka survived a rough start against the Rockies as the Brewers pulled off the sweep with a 12-6 victory.
The Cubs absolutely annihilated Cole Hamels and his Phillie phriends, hitting four home runs and scoring 11 times. Hamels didn't register a strikeout in what was an ugly 2+.
Pittsburgh took the first of a four game series, coming from behind against the desperate Astros. Wandy Rodriguez was decent but the Houston offense couldn't solve Pat Maholm. Maholm is one of a few good young arms up in Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny, Duke, Snell).
The Cardinals once again proved horrible in a 6-2 loss to the Mets. The loss means that with a win tonight in San Fran, the Reds will move into a tie for the NL Central lead. Marquis was bad in this one, as he always is.
Having become irrelevant in the AL West race, the Rangers salvaged the final game of four in Tampa Bay. Robinson Tejeda was strong for the second straight start. There's always '08.
Kansas City hung tough with Cleveland for most of the game but lost 8-4 thanks to an ugly showing by bullpen-er Ambiorix Burgos. Indians' youngsters Andy Marte and Ryan Garko enjoyed solid nights, going a combined 5-of-8 with four RBI.
The Giants are staying hot, beating Cincy 3-2 in the 6th. As mediocre and geriatric as San Fransico is, a series sweep would bring them even with Cincinnati.
Jarrod Washburn just exited in the 7th after striking out 10 Yankees and yielding only 2 runs. The M's lead 4-2.
David Ortiz' 46th homer stands as the difference in the Boston-Los Angeles matchup, 2-0 in the 7th.

The Mets stayed busy, DFA'ing recent pickup Ricky Ledee after picking up Shawn Green. Ledee was bad - this makes sense. Lastings Milledge was sent down to AAA. Michael Tucker is bad - this does not make much sense. Ramon Castro, one of the better backup backstops in the bigs, heads to the 60-day DL, replaced by Kelly Stinnett.

Thursday Update

2006-08-24T16:31:00.000-05:00

Jermaine Dye absolutely exploded today, hitting two home runs and a double in the White Sox' 10-0 obliteration of the AL Central-leading Tigers. Although Jon Garland's complete game shutout might have been the White Sox' best individual performance today, Dye's big day is important. Having lost Jim Thome for a few games with some sort of leg injury, the White Sox needed someone to step into the #3 hole vacated by Thome. Dye accepted the invitation and more. What was an incredible 3-4-5 mix with Thome, Konerko, and Dye is only slightly less dangerous with the shuffling-in of third baseman Joe Crede. Crede, though normally a #6 or #7 place hitter, is no slouch. He and his .540 slugging percentage certainly can drive in some runs. Also looking up for the White Sox: Brian Anderson. After catching everything in his general vicinity but struggling to stay above .200 for the first several months of the season, his hitting is finally catching up with his glove work. Anderson's OPS has increased steadily with each passing month this season, rising from an anemic .572 May figure to the considerably more passable .797 and .801 in July and August, respectively. Chicago GM Kenny Williams should be commended for his persistence in sticking with the much maligned Anderson, even when the press was calling for a veteran import via trade. I still like the Twins' bullpen, but the White Sox have got some darn good hitters.

Wednesday Wrapup

2006-08-23T22:47:00.000-05:00

Matt Garza gave the Twins exactly the lift they needed today with six strong innings and his first big league win. Garza only struck out one Oriole hitter, but worked in and around the strike zone and only threw a total of 80 pitches. Regardless of the Twins' problems at the back end of the rotation, they possess something that few teams do: a serviceable bullpen. Tonight, Ron Gardenhire threw his 'big-game' guys at the Orioles, sending Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon, and Joe Nathan to the hill. All of these guys have been more than solid this season, and they all possess ERAs below 2.44. Nathan is easily the most underrated closer in the bigs, ranking second to Jonathan Papelbon in WXRL while only earning half the accolades pitchers like Bobby Jenks (6th in WXRL) and Billy Wagner (7th) have garnered. The AL Central race is split between three teams with above-average bullpens. The White Sox have shut down set-up men Riske and MacDougal, the Tigers' Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, and the Twins the reliable Nathan. The Tigers are by far and away the best complete team of the three, but if the Wild Card ends up being decided by the bullpens, I'm definitely not putting my money on Bobby Jenks and Co.

As I guessed in the previous post, Mark Mulder didn't have a good night in New York. Mulder was shelled to the tune of nine runs in three innings. The Cards' bullpen kept them in the game, but the Mets pulled a second straight win from under the Cardinals, who should feel lucky they don't have any good teams nipping at their heels.

Wednesday Update

2006-08-23T16:17:00.000-05:00

Two big-name starting pitchers, Mark Mulder and Gustavo Chacin, make their returns from the DL this evening. The Blue Jays are out of the AL picture, but the Cardinals still have some baseball to play between now and the postseason.

The day began with the Cardinals only one game up on Cincinnati, trying to recover from a come-from-behind beating at the hands of Carlos Beltran. However, the Reds managed to fall to the Astros this afternoon, giving the Cards a bit of reprieve. All signs point to tonight's game being an ugly one for Mulder. The big lefty struggled all season leading up to his injury, pitching his way to a 6.09 ERA with the help of a mediocre 4.9 strikeouts per 9 innings. Mulder looked rusty in two Triple-A rehab starts, allowing 11 hits and issuing nine walks in eight innings of work. On top of all of this, Mulder's only previous experience at Shea stadium was a shellacking that resulted in six runs being scored over the course of five innings. This game certainly means a bit more for the Cardinals than for the Mets, who recieved some good news concerning Tom Glavine and their chances in the playoffs.

Speaking of the Mets: New York acquired outfielder Shawn Green from the Diamondbacks for a Triple-A pitcher yesterday. Shawn Green isn't much of a hitter (.259 Park-Adjusted EQA), and he's a horrid fielder (91 RATE), but with Cliff Floyd's health remaining a question mark, Green represents a viable alternative to Endy Chavez/Michael Tucker. Looking forward, the Mets are only paying approximately half of Green's 2007 salary, and he's a guy who could be useful in a reduced role while Lastings Milledge rounds into form. If anyone loses in this deal its the Diamondbacks, who waited about a month too long to unload Shawn Green. Carlos Quentin is obviously now and forever the better player. More playing time for Quentin earlier in the season may have resulted in more runs scored, more wins, and a smaller deficit in the Wild Card race.

Tuesday Wrapup

2006-08-22T23:05:00.000-05:00

The Texas Rangers entered the week with an outside shot at a playoff berth, but have effectively dashed any hope by dropping two straight to the Devil Rays. The Rangers wasted a decent outing from Vicente Padilla tonight, failing to plate a single run against an atrocious Tampa Bay bullpen. Padilla, true to form, hit two D-Rays with pitches and allowed 10 hits but kept Texas in the game and headed for the showers with the score a three-all tie. Ron Mahay gave up a solo shot to Travis Lee to begin the 8th, putting the game out of the Rangers' reach. One thing that occurred to me in looking over this box score is the divide between good, young players and bottom of the barrel veterans that populate the Tampa Bay roster. Some of the more exciting young players in the AL reside in Tampa, with speedsters Rocco Baldelli (.289/.331/.452) and Carl Crawford (.313/.360/.495), prospects B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist, and the hugely underrated Scott Kazmir. In several weeks the D-Rays could also bring the always psychotic Delmon Young into the fold. These youngsters are juxtaposed with some of the trashiest of the trashy. The bottom of the Tampa Bay lineup features Travis Lee, Russell Branyan, Damon Hollins, and Tomas Perez. Throw Johnny Gomes into the mix, and you've got yourself five regulars on the same team who are all struggling to stay above the mendoza line. In late August.

The Twins and White Sox both shot themselves in the foot tonight with weak offensive showings. The White Sox were stymied by Kenny Rogers and Fernando Rodney, while the Twins had the displeasure of facing rookie Adam Loewen at his best. The Tigers don't look to be in any danger of coughing up their division lead, so Detroit and Chicago are going to battle it out for the Wild Card. Who will take the prize is anyone's guess at this point.

I'm watching Jeff Karstens' debut, and I'm impressed. The 23 year-old Yankee isn't exactly a top-flite prospect, coming from the 19th round of the draft and posting fairly pedestrian numbers at every stop on the farm. Karstens really needs to work on making sure he keeps his fastball down in the zone, because when elevated, its a pretty easy pitch to hit, as Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre can attest. However, his curveball is excellent and he doesn't seem to have any trouble throwing it for a strike. Karstens' track record says #4 or #5 starter, but his stuff projects favorably.

Tuesday Preview

2006-08-22T13:32:00.000-05:00

The AL Central/Wild Card race stays interesting today, as the White Sox have a much tougher draw than the Twins this evening.

In a battle of two second-half stragglers, Mark Buehrle faces Kenny Rogers tonight in Detroit. After punching the White Sox around yesterday, the Tigers hold a 6.5 game lead and plenty of confidence. The White Sox are only half of a game up on the Twins and coming off of a fairly brutal series loss in Minnesota. It's fair to say that this game is big for the Sox and Buehrle, who is trying to dig up some of the success he has enjoyed at earlier points in his career. Though Mike Maroth's rehab is taking a bit longer than expected, the Tigers' pitching situation is looking good, with Rogers being the least effective of the bunch. Despite being the weakest link in the Tigers' chain, Rogers is still a useful pitcher who can be counted on to at least keep things close for five innings every time out.
The Twins are granted a prime opportunity to leapfrog the White Sox with a series in Baltimore. Admittedly, Baltimore hasn't been shabby of late, taking two of three from both the Yankees and Blue Jays in the past week. Carlos Silva meets Adam Loewen in a matchup that could result in some serious runs being plated. Despite his generally ugly numbers, the 22 year-old Loewen has improved his ERA every month this season, and has shown the ability to pick up strikeouts at a decent clip (8.1/9 IP).

Monday Wrapup

2006-08-21T23:01:00.000-05:00

Houston did exactly what it needed to do for the first seven innings of tonight's game. Andy Pettitte tossed a good one, racking up 10 strikeouts in five and a third, and the offense provided a bit of pop with three solo home runs. Pettitte walked or struck out 14 of the 25 batters he faced, effectively taking the Great American (long)Ballpark effect out of play. Russ Springer and Chad Qualls worked the sixth and seventh with little trouble, but Qualls fell victim to the bandbox effect in the eighth. Rich Aurilia, all year a pleasant (.289/.341/.531) surprise, came up big for Cincinnati, rapping a Qualls delivery out of the park to tie the game. A bit later, Royce Clayton punched a single through the infield to give the Reds a lead that recent acquisition Scott Schoenweis would not give up. Obviously, this loss is huge for the Astros, putting them six back in the Wild Card. The win could turn out to be very important for the Reds, who have the Phillies (winners at Chicago), Padres (winning vs. LA), and Diamondbacks (trailing in San Fran) hot on their heels. For a Reds team that quite frankly isn't much good, every win is a huge step toward a postseason berth that they really, really do not deserve.

After tonight's scuffle, John Gibbons might not want to be so blunt in dealing with his players.

Monday Update

2006-08-21T17:25:00.000-05:00

Tonight marks the beginning of a now-or-never series for the Houston Astros. Trailing in the wild card by five games, the Astros meet the Reds in the first game of three at the Great American (Long)Ball Park. The resurgent Andy Pettitte faces Bronson Arroyo in a matchup of AL-turned-NL starters. Pettitte suffered through an arduous first three months before finding his groove in July and August. Pettitte has really buckled down in his last four starts, allowing only 20 hits and five walks in 29+ innings. The Reds are always a threat to put runs on the board, and are helped considerably by the cozy confines of their home park. Pettitte will have to do his best to keep the ball out of the seats in this one, because the Astros hitters aren't the best in the world. In fact, the Astros are carrying not one, not two, but three replacement level hitters in their daily lineup. If Willy Taveras' .334 slugging percentage and Adam Everett's .288 on-base percentage don't make you cringe, look no further than Brad Ausmus' -15.0 VORP for some sadistic jollies. We know, he totally saved the day last year against the Braves...but c'mon - the guy is just bad.

Sunday Update

2006-08-20T18:03:00.000-05:00

Some more transaction news:

For some reason or another, the Tigers traded for Neifi Perez, sending minor-league catcher Chris Robinson to the Cubs. Admittedly, the loss of a 22 year-old catcher with an OPS of .705 at Single-A shouldn't set the Tigers back much, but in truth there is not enough space in an organization for both dignity and Neifi Perez. The Tigers chose to cut loose their dignity in return for Perez and his .266 OBP. Sure, he's cheap and pretty nifty with the glove, but current Tiger Omar Infante could could be described in this manner as well. Here's hoping Neifi Perez sinks the ship and the Tigers don't make the playoffs. Stupid Dombrowski...

Sunday Preview

2006-08-20T12:07:00.000-05:00

Though most of the media attention has been on the Yanks vs. Sox and tonight's matchup of aces, the AL Wild Card race is the closer of the two.

The White Sox try to protect their two game lead and steal a series win from the Twins today in Minnesota. Unfortunately for Chicago, the unhittable Johan Santana takes the ball for the Twins this afternoon. The White Sox' offense was opportunistic enough to snatch a win yesterday against a formidable opponent in Brad Radke. The Twins made several errors, leaving Radke to fight through some tough situations and ultimately surrender three runs, two unearned. The White Sox may have to hope for the same kinds of opportunities to present themselves today, as Santana has been lights out in allowing only a .151 batting average against in August. Javier Vazquez gets the call for Chicago. Vazquez has a high ERA and has dealt with grief from Sox fans for his failure to live up to expectations. However, just watching one turn through the Chicago rotation gives credence to the claim that Vazquez is more effective than the mediocre Mark Buehrle and Freddy Garcia. Vazquez is decent on a fairly regular basis and downright nasty when he is hitting the corners of the zone with his shifty fastball. For evidence of his worth, look no further than his 4.30 FIP and the .322 BABIP that could be leading to the poor results many are wailing about.

Saturday Wrapup

2006-08-20T00:54:00.000-05:00

Another fairly substantial waiver-wire move today:

Jamie Moyer is heading to Philadelphia in exchange for minor-league pitchers Andrew Baldwin and Andrew Barb.

The Phillies solve their #5 starter problem with the acquisition, and in my opinion Moyer is still a fairly decent option at the back of the rotation even at 43 years old. Moyer doesn't throw any harder than 85 MPH anymore, but he has above-average command of the strike zone. Although his rising home run rate could be cause for some concern, he's posted a 4.61 ERA in the AL so I've got to believe he can be at least average in the NL.
The Mariners get two right-handed A-ball pitchers in the deal. Baldwin is 23 years old, and looks fairly average pitching at a level he is a bit too old for. In 147 innings he has walked only 22 hitters but allowed 164 hits, yielding about 4 runs per game. Barb, a reliever, is only 21 years old and is posting substantially better numbers. Barb has racked up 71 strikeouts in 60.2 innings while allowing a scant 35 hits and a thin 2.23 ERA. One mustn't put too much weight on a pitcher's numbers in A-ball relief, but at least the M's picked up something for the nothing Moyer and his expiring contract would've become in the offseason.

Saturday Update

2006-08-19T17:04:00.000-05:00

The Yankees continued to pummel the Red Sox today, laying 13 runs on Josh Beckett and Co. en route to a 4.5 game lead in the AL East. The third game of the series moved at a quicker pace than the first two, finishing in a crisp 3:43. All kidding aside, it was another painful one for fans of good pitching, as Josh Beckett threw 64 pitches through three innings and ended up with nine(!) walks to his credit to go with his nine runs surrendered. Randy Johnson wasn't the model of efficiency either, walking six BoSox in what has become his sort of game: seven innings pitched, five runs allowed, and a win tallied. Johnny Damon once again made the Red Sox rethink their offseason thriftiness with a three-of-six, three double performance. Here are some numbers to chew on:

Damon in '06: .297/.369/.513; 20 HR; 22 SB.
Crisp in '06: .276/.329/.398; 6 HR; 16 SB.

Life is good.

Saturday Preview

2006-08-19T12:02:00.000-05:00

Along with the hugely hyped series taking place in Boston this weekend, some interesting stuff is going down in the AL West.

As recently as several days ago, the Angels and Rangers had effectively fallen out of contention for the Division title. However, thanks to the pesky Royals, both Texas and Los Angeles are still kicking, if barely. The A's were shut down by Luke Hudson in game one of yesterday's debacle in Kansas City, and stymied by Jorge de la Rosa in game two. In losing both games, the A's let their lead over the second place Angels slip to a surmountable 4.5 games.

Things look good for the Athletics today, as they face the slumping Mark Redman (10.13 August ERA). I watched Redman's last start against the White Sox, and he was hitting his spots. Unfortunately for the Royals, the White Sox were hitting these same spots, resulting in an early exit for Redman. Slumping or not, Redman could be the cure to the A's offensive woes. Barry Zito goes for Oakland in the midst of a bad spell of his own. Still, I'll take a struggling Zito over a struggling Redman any day of the week.
The Angels have a legitimate shot at the division if their young players can stay hot through the final few weeks of the season. Joe Saunders was shelled for the first time last week, but Mike Napoli could be emerging from his horrific .169/.325/.385 July, as he hit a crucial home run in a win last night. Howie Kendrick needs to continue his hot hitting, while Macier Izturis has to keep his batting average over .300 to be of any use offensively. The veterans (Escobar, Lackey, Guerrero, Rivera) have proven to be dependable but not good enough to warrant postseason talk. However, with the youngsters' help, the Angels could be well on their way to the '06 playoffs.
Despite their relative proximity to first place (5.5 games), I don't think the Rangers have a shot at the title. Despite Mark Teixeira's recent improvement and the addition of Carlos Lee, it is unlikely that Texas can hit well enough to gloss over the fact that Edison Volquez and Robinson Tejeda are getting starts. The two are prospects, but not major league-ready, and certainly not pennant-race ready. But then again, the alternatives are Kip Wells and Jon Koronka...

Friday Wrapup

2006-08-18T22:06:00.000-05:00

The veteran managed to out-pitch the rookie today in the matchup between the Tigers and Rangers. Kevin Millwood put together quite a gem, allowing only one run in seven innings on a Dmitri Young home run. Zach Miner was good but not good enough, letting up two runs in six innings. Both bullpens were sharp, and the Rangers relievers pitched well enough to hold up a 2-1 advantage for the duration. This Detroit loss can be attributed to the over-aggressive nature of their hitters. The Tigers didn't manage to draw a walk, and only coaxed 128 pitches out of the Texas staff. The good news for Detroit: Chicago looks well on its way to a loss tonight. Chicago's inability to gain any significant ground on the division-leading Tigers is nearly as frustrating as the mediocrity that is so prevalent in the NL, mainly because the White Sox have the ability to be a great team, but are at this point merely good.

In the NL, the storylines are looking familiar:

Philadelphia gets poor starting pitching and loses to a bad Washington team.
The Mets win, this time defeating Wild Card hopeful Colorado.
The anemic Astros offense only musters two runs, wasting some good pitching in a loss.
Cincinnati loses.

Friday Update

2006-08-18T14:28:00.000-05:00

Offseason acquisition Johnny Damon has been an absolute godsend for the New York Yankees this season. Damon is especially hot right now, having hit four home runs in his last eight games. This afternoon, Damon has responded to the Fenway boo-birds with a triple and a two-run homer. Damon may not be hitting the ball any further than he has in the past, but the short porch in Yankee stadium could be helping him out. Damon has 19 home runs, only one short of a career high, and is posting a career best .294 EQA. He has been very durable, playing 112 of a possible 119 games this season while fighting through a number of nagging injuries. With the addition of Bobby Abreu, the consistency of Damon, and the emergence of Melky Cabrera, the Yankees' outfield is among the best in the majors despite the loss of its two biggest offensive contributors.

Eric Hinske is tearing apart the Yankees in his Red Sox debut. Hinske has three doubles in as many at-bats.

The Cardinals signed Houston castaway Preston Wilson today, sending starting pitcher Anthony Reyes to Triple-A to make roster room. On hearing this news, I immediately wondered why the Cardinals needed two Juan Encarnacions on the team when zero Juan Encarnacions is clearly the optimum number of Juan Encarnacions. Looking at this in more depth, I found that with Edmonds' indefinite absence, the Cards need some outfield depth. However, I don't see the point of replacing So Taguchi's crappy .244 EQA with Preston Wilson's equally crappy .244 EQA. At least what little Taguchi is worth stems from an ability to get on base-Wilson's only contribution (besides the sideburns) is a home run every once in a while. I assume Mark Mulder is ready to make his return to the rotation in place of Reyes. No matter what transpires, a team who underachieves this consistently on the field and in the front office does not deserve a playoff berth.

Thursday Update

2006-08-18T14:10:00.000-05:00

In a pretty odd turn of events, the Reds and Cardinals found themselves engaged in quite the pitchers' duel this afternoon. Not only are both teams firmly entrenched in the top half of the Majors in Marginal Lineup value and VORP, but the starters they sent to the hill didn't look too promising. Cincinnati's Kyle Lohse threw seven great innings of one-run ball, thinning his ERA as a Red to a scant 2.33 in 19+ innings. I haven't seen enough of Lohse in Cincy to determine whether he's changed anything mechanically, but it seems like Lohse's 2006 may be a case for the "change-of scenery" phenomenon. St. Louis threw their own retread out there in Anaheim castaway Jeff Weaver. Weaver matched Lohse inning-for-inning, going seven and a third while allowing only one run on three hits. Weaver has made seven starts as a Cardinal, and hasn't been great, racking up a 5.54 ERA in 37 1/3 innings pitched. I believe Weaver still has good stuff and the ability to provide a fine arm in long relief. I don't think St. Louis and their weak rotation is the right place for Weaver, but the Cardinals pulled out the crucial victory with Weaver's assistance today. Scott Rolen provided all the offense the Cards needed, banging a solo shot and finishing the contest with a walk-off single. The Cardinals and Reds have no more head-to-head matchups remaning, and with St. Louis up by two and a half games, the Reds have some work to do.

Thursday Preview

2006-08-17T07:59:00.000-05:00

The Blue Jays dealt corner infielder/outfielder to the Red Sox last night. Hinske, a former Rookie of the year who is hitting .264/.353/.513 this season, is certainly a helpful player, but I don't know where he fits in the Boston lineup. Despite the loss of Trot Nixon, the Red Sox are especially strong at the corner positions, employing Manny Ramirez (56 VORP), Kevin Youkilis (22.6), Wily Mo Pena (15.5) and Mike Lowell (13.3). Depth is always good, but Hinske just seems to be filling the same role as he did in Toronto - a heavy-hitting, underutilized utility man. Hey, its a better idea than acquiring Javy "I'm horrible" Lopez.

Wednesday Wrapup

2006-08-16T22:59:00.000-05:00

Justin Verlander looked scared at times against a dominating Red Sox lineup tonight. Verlander walked seven Sox while only striking out two, and seemed like the was pitching around many of the hitters. In the decisive 6th inning, light-hitting Alex Cora filled the count on Verlander. Instead of challenging the obviously overmatched Cora, Verlander threw what looked like a concession pitch about a foot above the outside corner. This particular walk loaded the bases for Coco Crisp, who then doubled home two runs. Kenny Rogers has lost his steam, Zach Miner is obviously not a phenom, and the injured Mike Maroth is not a sure thing. If Verlander continues to struggle down the stretch, I don't worry about the Tigers ability to make the playoffs as much as I do their ability to stay in the playoffs for more than three games.

The Astros were at their most frustrating this afternoon, failing to score a single run against Cubs' debutee Ryan O'Malley, who by all accounts doesn't have the greatest of stuff. The Astros were first-pitch swinging for most of the afternoon, hitting weak popouts all over the field and failing to support Andy Pettitte's absolutely beautiful one-run complete game gem. With Oswalt and Pettitte, the Astros have some serious curveballers. Both of these guys amaze me with their ability to put 20 miles per hour between their fastball and curveball. It's a wonder anyone scores on these kinds of pitchers.

Wednesday Preview

2006-08-16T11:40:00.000-05:00

Looking at the Wild Card picture as it is currently painted, I'd say there are six teams remaining in the NL hunt and three in the AL:

The NL picture is crowded, with six teams within four games of the leader.

Cincinnati leads the pack, and is 2.5 back in the Central. With only two games remaining against St. Louis, I don't think the Reds will win the division. With the recent demotion of Elizardo Ramirez resulting in more weight on the shoulders of Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton, I can't envision the Reds holding onto their one game Wild Card lead. Griffey just isn't an offensive asset any more, and the bullpen is still bad despite Wayne Krivsky's silly re-shuffling experiments.
Arizona is in a second place tie, one game back. In my mind, the Diamondbacks have as good a shot at the playoffs as any of their competitors. Arizona doesn't have a standout on offense, but they have oodles of depth because of the emergence of youngsters like Stephen Drew (.330/.369/.583) and Carlos Quentin (.250/.338/.567). Their starting rotation is similarly full of average performers (Miguel Batista, Livan Hernandez) who have been hot as of late. The D'Backs are relying on unproven players down the stretch, but they don't have to stay hot much longer to earn a playoff berth.
San Diego, also one game back, is another team I'd certainly give a vote of confidence. Chan Ho Park is back in the fold, giving the Padres five serviceable starters for the stretch run. Despite questionmarks at a few spots around the diamond (Todd Walker, Khalil Greene), key players like Mike Cameron (.262/.343/.478) and Adrian Gonzalez (.300/.348/.509) have been able to carry most of the dead weight.
Philadelphia traded their best player and subsequently gained ground in the playoff race. This makes sense when you recall how poorly the Phillies played for the first two-thirds of the season. The Philadelphia roster is stocked with goodies like Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, yet they lost and lost and lost. Thanks to Cole Hamels' emergence as a front-line starter, Ryan Howard's home run explosion, and both Brett Myers' and Jon Lieber's return to something above replacement level, the Phillies are playing up to preseason expectations and are only 2.5 games out.
Colorado is three games out of the picture and somewhere they haven't been in quite a while: near the playoffs. A perennial loser, the Rockies have been discounted by many based on the organization's poor reputation and knack for being consistently horrible. The Rockies are better this year, propped up by a ridiculously strong rotation (Jason Jennings, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook are all worth 40+ runs above replacement) and some good hitting from Matt Holliday (.327/.378/.570) and Garrett Atkins (.304/.381/.515). Unless Jamey Carroll (.301/.383/.400 in '06) becomes Jamey Carroll (.251/.333/.284 in '05) once more, forcing Kaz Matsui into the picture, the Rockies have a real shot at the postseason.
Only four games out, the Astros deserve mention solely based on the potential strength of the Clemens/Oswalt/Pettitte triumvirate. However, with Oswalt facing injury trouble and Clemens unable to win for his life, I'm reconsidering my inclusion of Houston in the 'contenders' pile.

The AL picture is a little more clear-cut, and features much better baseball as a whole.

The White Sox lead by two games, and despite an egregious loss to the Royals last night, are my favorites to take the Wild Card. Mark Buerhle and Freddy Garcia showed that they just maybe aren't quite so horrible in their last starts, and its up to Jose Contreras to cement himself as the ace of the staff tonight against the Royals. If the pitching can be halfway decent the rest of the way, Ozzie's going to the postseason.
The Red Sox are two games out and looking pretty shaky. Javy Lopez has, predictably, been a disaster in Beantown (.259/.259/.370) and David Wells is no longer a Major League-caliber pitcher. As Josh Beckett's struggles continue, the Red Sox playoff hopes look dimmer by the day.
The Twins are three back and hanging by a thread. The offense hasn't looked impressive of late, and unless Johan Santana and Brad Radke make every start from here on out, I just can't see Minnesota edging out either of the Sox squads.

Good midday matchup of young arms between the Brewers (Capuano) and the Pirates (Duke). Zach Duke has seemingly turned his season around, while Capuano makes up half of one of the more impressive 1-2 pitching punches in the bigs (along with Ben Sheets).

Tuesday Wrapup

2006-08-15T22:50:00.000-05:00

The Twins offense wasn't great tonight, but it didn't take much to get Minnesota the win with Johan Santana on the hill. The Twins' hitters managed only 4 runs, waiting until the 8th inning to tack on the final 3. However, Santana was absolutely lights-out, putting his fastball on the corners and throwing the most convincing and knee-buckling change I think I have ever seen. When Santana is on (most of the time), his change ranks up there with Mariano Rivera's cutter in terms of unhittable pitches in my opinion. Santana was downright nasty against a powerful Indians lineup tonight, tossing 8 efficient innings riding on the strength of 9 strikeouts. Despite fellow change-up maven Brad Radke's resurgence, the Twins could really stand for Santana pitching once every say, two days instead of every fifth. Everything rolled right for Minnesota today, as the White Sox and Red Sox both lost, putting the Twins 2 back in the Wild Card, a game ahead of the BoSox.

Johnny Damon continued to rake this evening in the Bronx, smashing his 17th home run in the leadoff spot. Damon has been everything the Yankees paid for and more, refusing to sit out despite being nicked up all season. He's been the model of consistency most of the way for a Yankees team that has been anything but steady in the outfield in -06.

Tuesday Preview

2006-08-15T14:02:00.000-05:00

Many of this week's crucial divisional series' kick off tonight. These series' can lead to a team rocketing back into contention or just as quickly falling out of the race altogether.

The Wild-Card leading Reds have a chance to overtake the mediocre Cardinals and gain the NL Central lead in a three-game series that begins tonight. Cincinnati hands the ball to their #1 starter, Aaron Harang. Since June, Harang hasn't been great, posting a 4.14 ERA in 8 starts. Despite his middling results of late, Harang is usually a good bet to go deep into the game and provide a solid outing. Solid starts are exactly what Cincinnati needs from its top starters, considering the recent struggles of Bronson Arroyo and the barely palatable thought of a Lohse/Franklin #4/5 combo. The Cardinals have been horrible in the past few weeks, and are coming off a sweep at the hands of the NL's worst; the Pirates. Baseball Prospectus still gives St. Louis an 81% shot at the playoffs, based on the (de)merits of the rest of the league. Luckily for the Redbirds, Chris Carpenter gets the nod this evening. The 31 year-old Carpenter is similar to Harang in that they possess healthy peripherals and strong ERA's to match. Carpenter hasn't had much luck in August, and was roughed up by these same Reds less than a week ago. It seems like things have gotten so bad for the Cardinals that their only healthy, decent players these days are Carpenter and Albert Pujols. St. Louis needs to take advantage of the fact that these two will be penciled in the book tonight and pick up a win on an equally mediocre Cincy team.

Monday Wrapup

2006-08-14T23:50:00.000-05:00

Two NL pitchers threw good games today in very disparate ways:

Philadelphia rookie Cole Hamels continued his recent success by throwing 8 innings of 4 hit ball against the National League's best team, the Mets. Hamels struck out 9 Metropolitans without walking any. His fourth straight quality start lowered his August ERA to a miniscule 0.86. In the month, Hamels has struck out 27 in only 21 innings, while issuing only 3 free passes. No one has managed a round-tripper against Hamels during August. The Phillies are only 3.5 games behind the Wild Card leader, but realistically don't have much of a shot. If there's one thing the Phils can take away from a very disappointing season, it has to be Hamels and his recent surge.

The Cubs are a team that is undoubtedly out of the playoff picture and merely playing for pride (Cub pride?) at this point. Carlos Zambrano shut down the Astros in his signature manner this evening, throwing tons of pitches, allowing next-to-no hits, and walking many hitters. The uber-competitive Zambrano, who ranks #3 in Baseball Prospectus' pitcher abuse points, threw 121 pitches and walked 7 'Stros but didn't cede a run. Zambrano and his hard-sinking fastball are masterful at initiating the groundball out, and he did a great job tonight, getting 12 of the 19 outs in play on the ground. This game may not speak to Zambrano's strength as much as to the Astros' horrible lineup. Houston is 4 out of the Wild Card, and can't buy a win (or a hit) despite some great pitching of late from Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, and Roger Clemens. Cutting bait on Preston Wilson was a start, but Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus still kill the lineup nightly.

Monday Preview

2006-08-14T09:37:00.000-05:00

I'll spare myself the rise in blood pressure and place the Yankees vs. Red Sox-centric week we're about to embark on aside for the moment; there are some exciting things happening out west.

After losing a must-win game and failing to evade a season-crippling sweep at Chavez Ravine last night, the Giants roll into San Diego 7.5 games out of the NL West lead and 6.5 back in the Wild Card race. For all intents and purposes, they're done. San Diego, however, isn't. The Padres are 0.5 games back in the Wild Card and 1.5 games back in the division, and arguably field a better team than the squads they sit behind. On the weight of the playoff chase alone, this game holds intrigue. Throw some interesting pitchers in the mix, and we're set for a good one. Brad Hennessey returns to the Giants' rotation, taking the place of the elderly and recently deposed Jamey Wright. Despite being fairly effective (2.80 ERA) as a starter early in the season, the 26 year-old has pitched in long relief for the majority of the season. His peripherals aren't great because he only strikes out 4 per 9 innings, but if he can somehow keep his batting average-against low, Hennessey should give the Giants reason to think hopeful thoughts about their 2007 rotation. Clay Hensley goes for the Padres. Hensley, a 26 year-old rookie, has lent stability to a Padres rotation that has helped the team stay in playoff contention all season. Hensley's K/BB ratio doesn't look great (1.4/1) and he doesn't project to be more than a steady #4, but he has filled that role admirably for the Friars thus far in 2006.

Sunday Update

2006-08-13T15:06:00.000-05:00

Fausto Carmona finally worked his way through a 9th inning! Unfortunately for Fausto, he didn't pick up the save, as the Indians were holding a 13-0 lead over the Royals at the time. The Indians jumped all over Luke Hudson in the 1st for 11 runs in one of the more painful innings I've ever had the joy of watching. Hudson ended up getting 1 out and allowing 12 baserunners, raising his ERA from 4.65 to 6.39. Bad day.

Jered Weaver stumped the Yankees for 6 innings today, yielding only 3 hits and 1 run (a Craig Wilson solo shot). Watching Weaver work, I noticed that his fastball doesn't have too much late movement or pure velocity. What makes Weaver so hard to hit is 1.) his delivery, which hides the ball and must add a few MPH to whatever he tosses across the plate, and 2.) his ability to throw strikes with all of his pitches. On a number of occasions, Weaver threw his breaking ball (slider/hard curve/slurve?) over the plate, freezing the normally prudent Yankees hitters. The Angels lead the Yanks in the 8th inning, and are threatening to do further damage against rookie Jose Veras.

Given, today's game isn't over yet, but the Cardinals do not deserve a trip to the postseason in 2006. This team goes through two-week stretches of miserable pitching, followed by several series' in which they can't hit some of the worst starting pitching in the NL. Against the Pirates (the Pirates!) this weekend, the Cards have been at their most-punchless. Today they've been stymied by Paul Maholm, and are still scoreless through 7+ innings. Rich Lederer's most recent piece at the Baseball Analysts
might tell us why. Since the All-Star Break, David Eckstein has been
the second worst (qualified) hitter in the majors. His line is as
follows: .230/.269/.230. If this is the guy hitting leadoff for your
squad, start planning a vacation for October.

Sunday Preview

2006-08-13T11:31:00.000-05:00

Some great young pitchers take the ball today, but I want to focus on a pitcher who has struggled a bit this season.

The O's Daniel Cabrera came into 2006 as one of the hottest names in the game. Some phenomenal work in the World Baseball Classic coupled with Leo Mazzone's employ led to everyone in the business heaping praise all over the 25 year-old lefty with one caveat: he hadn't ever been able to throw strikes with any consistency (4.9 BB/9 IP in 2005). Leo Mazzone was supposed to fix all of this. However, when April rolled around and Cabrera's control was worse than ever, it sunk Baltimore's season pretty quickly. Cabrera was sent to the minors after a July 13th start, averaging nearly 8 walks per 9 innings(!). After spending a month as a member of the Triple-A Ottawa Lynx, Cabrera was called up and enjoyed what was easily his best start this season. Cabrera allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings, and most importantly, only walked 1 Blue Jay hitter. Today, Cabrera will face a very tough test: the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox lineup is filled with good hitters who take pitches and allow pitchers to run themselves into the ground. In 2006, the average major leaguer walks about 9% of the time. The Red Sox' three best hitters, Manny Ramirez (15%), Kevin Youkilis (13%) and David Ortiz (12%) all possess keen eyes. Even hitters like Mike Lowell and Mark Loretta who don't walk too often, manage to avoid striking out with any regularity. Cabrera has a chance to prove himself cured or fall flat on his face today, perhaps setting back his development substantially. As important as this game is for the Red Sox and their playoff hopes, it may be just as make-or-break for Daniel Cabrera and the future of Baltimore's pitching situation.

This evening, two teams are faced with win or go home circumstances. I'm under the impression that the Mariners (vs. the Rangers) and the Giants (vs. the Dodgers) must win their respective games tonight to keep any rational hope of a playoff berth alive. Even with wins tonight, the cards are stacked against the two squads.

Saturday Preview

2006-08-12T10:45:00.000-05:00

Several teams' playoff hopes hinge on young pitchers making their debuts today:

Sitting 5 games out of the Wild Card lead, the Braves are in win or go home territory every day. This evening they hand the ball to Kevin Barry, a rookie who has only worked out of the pen up to this point. A 27 year-old organizational warrior, Barry has been mostly decent through his 10.2 innings of work this season. After making an impressive debut in Yankee Stadium, Barry has used his seemingly limited pitch repetoire to garner nearly 7 strikeouts per 9 innings. Because his stuff isn't all that deceptive, Barry tends to get a little too fine at times, trying to get calls on the corner of the zone and walking a lot of hitters (5.1/9 IP). Barry's minor league numbers point to him being a adequate emergency starter. With Horacio Ramirez out for the season and Kyle Davies not yet healthy, the Braves will need Barry to be better than the alternative (Shiell) in order for the team to make a trip to the postseason.

Highly-regarded right-hander Jason Hirsh gets the call for the Astros today. After having fallen out of the race, the Astros have been the hottest team in the NL, going 8-2 in their last 10 games to pull within 1.5 games of the Wild Card. The 24 year-old Hirsh has modest potential according to PECOTA, but he is more of a scout's dream than a sabermetrician's. Though his batting average against is only .191, the 6-8 giant has walked 3.3 batters per 9 innings, and may find Major League hitters even more selective than those at AAA. Hirsh definitely has his work cut out for him today, as he faces the Padres' ace Jake Peavy, whose performance is finally living up to what his peripherals were hinting at all season.

Friday Wrapup

2006-08-11T23:31:00.000-05:00

Looking through the box scores, there are a couple young pitchers you've got to feel for this evening:

Adam Loewen hasn't had a great rookie season. His season got much worse against the Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox took out all of their pent-up frustrations on Loewen, posting 6 runs on 6 hits in just over 2 innings. Loewen got into the same kind of trouble many inexperienced pitchers do against teams like the Red Sox or Yankees: they pitch themselves into deep counts and end up allowing loads of walks or hits. This evening all of the Red Sox made Loewen and his Oriole brethren pay, as every Boston starter picked up a base hit. David Wells did the improbable and threw a good game. Watching his last several starts, I was convinced he would never be able to pitch effectively in the majors again. However, the Orioles lineup did much to cure Wells' ills, giving him a 7 inning, 9 hit, 1 run gem. The Red Sox gain a game and move within 2 of the first-place Yankees.

Matt Garza was the other youngster with bad luck. First of all, replacing Fransisco Liriano is a pretty tall order to begin with. Earlier this evening, the 22 year-old Garza debuted at his fourth different level this season, an impressive feat. Unfortunately, Garza got the call against a very potent Toronto offense. The Jays launched 2 long balls and totaled 7 runs in 2.2 innings pitched. Much of Toronto's offense came from unlikely sources, showing off their lineup's versatility. Vernon Wells, the Jays' best hitter, went 1-for-5, but two run home runs from Reed Johnson and John McDonald helped Garza's ERA to a astronomical 23.62. If only the Blue Jays had a couple of decent pitchers at the back of their bullpen...

Friday Preview

2006-08-11T14:11:00.000-05:00

Bunches of weekend series' get going tonight, and at this point the list of matchups without playoff implications is shorter than the list of key games, so I'll just look at a couple of tonight's good ones.

In the last week or so we've seen some of this year's young pitching stars get a visit from reality. Jonathan Papelbon has blown each of his last two save opportunities, helping to speed the Red Sox' descent in the standings. Fransisco Liriano was battered by the Tigers and subsequently put on the DL for an indefinite amount of time. Jered Weaver has allowed 3 and 4 runs in his last two starts, respectively, and failed to notch a win in either. Tonight we could be witness to another meltdown. Coming off of some extra rest to face the potent White Sox is Tigers' rookie Justin Verlander. To this point in the season, Verlander hasn't been as consistently solid as his rookie counterparts, but has nonetheless thrown some darn good games, racking up a 2.79 ERA. Though Verlander hasn't shown much wear and tear coming down the stretch (1.01 July ERA), he is reaching his personal threshold of innings previously pitched. Often times, a 23 year-old might hit a wall when surpassing his previous innings limit. For their part, the Tigers have been cautious and used their large division lead to keep Verlander fresh and out of high-stress situations. Tonight he gets the call against Jose Contreras, who despite the media's insistence, still has great stuff. If his forkball isn't falling out of the zone low, Contreras is one of the best pitchers in the game.

Later this evening, the Giants head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. The Giants could use this series to jump back into the NL West race, while the Dodgers need to take at least 2 of the 3 games to stay ahead of the pack. Tonight the advantage goes to the Giants, as a personal favorite of mine, Noah Lowry gets the call. Lowry has struggled with the velocity on his fastball this season, leading some to believe that he is pitching injured. From what I've seen, his changeup is so incredibly devastating on its own that he can get by with a so-so fastball. If and when the fastball comes around, this 25 year-old is going to be phenomenal. It helps the Giants' chances that Mark Hendrickson is throwing for the Dodgers. Hendrickson, a Ned Coletti midseason pickup, has only managed to win one game in the Dodger Blue while reverting to his post-spring 2006 level of mediocrity. I liked the Maddux deal, and I think the Dodgers' rotation is the best in the (NL) West, but Hendrickson isn't a guy who should be counted on with any sort of regularity.

Thursday Wrapup

2006-08-10T22:42:00.000-05:00

The Twins shot themselves in the foot today, losing in embarrassing fashion to the Blue Jays. The Twins could only manage to string together 4 hits against Ted Lilly and friends, and left 3 runners in scoring position. This is the kind of game that the Twins cannot afford to waste at this point. Fransisco Liriano may not be back at any point this season, Brad Radke's health makes him a ticking time bomb, and youngsters Matt Garza and Boof Bonser can't be considered locks to perform well on any given day. The Twins' four most established hitters, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Hunter, went a combined 0 for 13 tonight with 3 strikeouts, leaving a total of 8 men on base. The Red Sox and White Sox have their own problems, but the Twins can't lean on Nick Punto and Jason Tyner to lead them to the playoffs. What goes up, must come down...

The Red Sox met their match once again in Kansas City tonight. The Royals won yet another(!) one-run game, pulling the season series even at three apiece. Curt Schilling worked deep into the night, but was hit hard for 11 hits, 10 of them for extra bases. Considering the Royals started Runelvys Hernandez (worst starter in the majors) tonight, I feel there is no way to explain the result of the game. Whatever magic the Royals are using, they should've whipped out a bit earlier in the season, maybe when they sat within 20 games of the division lead.

Thursday Leadoff

2006-08-10T09:21:00.000-05:00

Today's best game is a matinee matchup between the Cardinals and Reds. The Cardinals hope to even the series at two games a piece while the Reds go for a series win and a spot 1.5 games back in the NL Central. The Cardinals send rookie Anthony Reyes up against Bronson Arroyo. After recieving so-so starts yesterday from their respective aces, both teams absolutely need strong performances from their starters. Reyes hasn't been great as a 24 year-old rookie, but he has lent a bit of consistency to a staff that doesn't have much to offer. Arroyo has been a very pleasant surprise for the Reds this season, turning in the majors' 5th best SNLVAR. Arroyo's peripherals aren't spectacular, or out of line with his numbers from several years ago. In my opinion, the most interesting thing about watching the Reds day-to-day is just guessing who they'll start at catcher. For some reason Manager Jerry Narron insists on a three-way platoon at the position, when David Ross should obviously be getting the call nearly every day. Ross has performed above-average defensively and contributed a .314 EQA to a lineup that has a few holes to patch on a nightly basis. Narron feels the need to trot out either Jason Larue or Javier Valentin two-thirds of the time despite their wretched offensive performances. Larue is batting a painful .187/.321/.310 while Valentin is hitting a robust .226/.285/.336. Admittedly, both are wizards with the glove, combining for 30 runs above average. I just wonder how many games David Ross' bat could've helped the Reds pick up in the Central standings...

Wednesday Rundown

2006-08-10T01:04:00.000-05:00

The Boston Red Sox are a good team by both record and reputation. They have a deep lineup stocked with two of the game's most notorious sluggers and a rotation led by one of the best pitchers of the last decade. The Royals are a bad team. They are the laughing stock of the big leagues because of their anonymous midwestern home and starting five that boasts Runelvys Hernandez. However, when these two teams get together, the tables always seem to turn. After tonight's Royals' win, the Red Sox lead the season series 3 games to 2 but have only been able to outscore the Royals by one run over those 5 games. Tonight's game was a nailbiter, and ultimately came down to Jonathan Papelbon blowing his second consecutive save, allowing a Mike Sweeney walk-off single in the bottom of the 9th. Josh Beckett threw a good game, going 6 innings and leaving with a win in hand. Manny Delcarmen and Mike Timlin allowed the Royals to threaten, but ultimately emerged from the 7th and 8th innings unscathed. Papelbon, however, had no such luck. Papelbon's wild success this season is a product of his ability to locate his fastball on the outside corner and keep pitches down in the zone. Papelbon threw strikes tonight, but left several choice pitches belt-high for Royals Esteban German and Sweeney to jump on. I don't forsee any sudden collapse in Papelbon's future, as unlike the fluky Derrick Turnbow, the Red Sox youngster can actually throw strikes consistently. However, mid-August is not a good time for Papelbon to fall into some sort of slump, and the Red Sox must dread the fact that they face the Royals 4 more times this season.

Wednesday Update

2006-08-09T16:04:00.000-05:00

The Braves did their best impression of the June version of themselves today, as the bullpen suffered a complete collapse in the 7th inning. Bobby Cox trotted out four pitchers in the frame while the Phillies were busy pounding out 8 runs on 6 hits and 4 walks. The Atlanta bullpen negated a perfectly good start by rookie Chuck James, who seemed to have defeated his control problems, walking none. The meltdown further proves the point that Macay McBride, Tyler Yates, and Chad Paronto are simply not major league material. Their ERA numbers look good, but a glance beneath the surface reveals the true nature of their ineffectiveness. McBride and Yates' walk/strikeout rates are pretty ugly, while Paronto doesn't have the best command himself (3.7 BB/9). Taking a glance down their bullpen, the only guy I would trust with a lead is Ken Ray, and he's no more than an average reliever on many a staff. This series proved what was creeping up on everyone already: the Braves are done for and the Phillies have a shot at the Wild Card. Only 3 games back, the Phillies have a staff ace in Brett Myers and a lineup with some serious pop. When David Dellucci gets the start, the 2-5 hitters in the Philadephia lineup are devastating. Dellucci's power/speed combo, followed by Utley's all-around skills, chased in by mashers Howard and Burrell. This Phillies team is certainly better than the Reds and Diamondbacks at this point.

Some of the bigger names in pitching get the nod tonight, but the best head-to-head is undoubtedly found in the Twins-Tigers game. Jeremy Bonderman and Johan Santana will try to shut down the high octane offenses they'll face tonight while working through mini-slumps. Bonderman is coming off of a rough start against Cleveland while Santana is attempting to bounce back from a July that saw him post a 4.74 ERA. Santana's problem was the number of hits allowed, as he uncharacteristically ceded 40 hits in only 38 innings pitched. As Fransisco Liriano can attest, the Tigers are not the team you want to face if you are looking to miss some bats.

A small transatcion tidbit: Todd Hollandsworth was claimed off of waivers by the Cincinnati Reds today. The Reds will send the Indians a player to be named later or cash for the rights to Hollandsworth. At 33 years of age, Hollandsworth is the definition of a 'spare part'. The former NL rookie of the year can still hit for power (.442 SLG) but his .253 OBP won't win him too many friends in Cincy. Hopefully the Reds won't see the arrival of Hollandsworth as cause for a cutback in Chris Denorfia's playing time, as the fourth outfielder has shown the capability to be better, younger, and cheaper than Hollandsworth. Moving Hollandsworth makes room for Franklin Gutierrez on the Cleveland roster. Gutierrez is younger than Hollandsworth, but his upside is essentially limited to eventually being 'the definition of a spare part'.

Tuesday Rundown

2006-08-09T15:33:00.000-05:00

The Yankees found themselves engaged in an extra-innings battle after Mariano Rivera failed to put away Paul Konerko and the White Sox. Bobby Jenks was dead-on tonight, throwing his hard curveball well enough that it was nearly impossible to hit. Luckily for the Yankees, the Red Sox failed to make up any ground, losing to the Royals. The Twins' win puts the Red Sox on the low end of the three-team Wild Card totem pole for the first time in quite a while.

Jered Weaver looked a bit more like his brother tonight against the Indians in yielding 4 runs in 5.2 innings. Jered has got good stuff with an incredibly deceptive delivery, but unless he finds another plus pitch to put alongside his impressive fastball and slider his career may be similar to that of his brother. At this point I feel comfortable going on the record to say that the younger Weaver isn't quite the caliber pitcher that either Fransisco Liriano or Justin Verlander is.

Over in the NL, the Reds proved themselves to be not totally useless, beating up on Jason Marquis (bleh) and the Cardinals to stay 3.5 games back. The Dodgers have relied heavily on ex-Braves tonight, getting solo shots from Rafael Furcal and Wilson Betemit to go along with a strong outing from Greg Maddux. As of now the Dodgers are up 3-2 in the 7th and well on their way to their 11th straight victory. With San Diego's loss, the Dodgers can pull within a half game of the NL West lead while keeping pace in the Wild Card for good measure.

Tuesday Leadoff

2006-08-08T13:40:00.000-05:00

Some transaction news from around the league:

The Indians signed starting pitcher Cliff Lee to a three-year deal today. The deal is fairly small as far as starting pitching deals go, running the Indians $14 million over the next three years (through 2009) with an $8 million club option in 2010. Lee is in his prime, and by all accounts a fairly average pitcher. He is left-handed, which helps his stock, but one strike against him is his decreasing K-rate. Lee gone from striking out over 8 hitters per 9 innings two years ago to ringing up under 6 per 9 this season. This is a low-risk investment by Cleveland, as Lee has proven durable and is a known commodity: the typical middle-to-back end guy who won't sink your ship every fifth day.

In an attempt to bolster their outfield depth, the Mets added Ricky Ledee off of waivers from the Dodgers today. Ledee is the consummate journeyman/fourth outfielder type, and will surely do a better job than the man he is replacing (Eli Marrero). Most importantly, this gives the Mets a replacement level left-handed bat off of the bench in case Cliff Floyd gets into further injury trouble this season.

Hear that? That sound is the entire state of Minnesota groaning collectively. Young stud Fransisco Liriano hit the DL this morning, expected out indefinitely with a 'left elbow injury'. Manager Ron Gardenhire says the injury has to do with a muscular problem, but details are hazy at best. In my opinion, the injury must be fairly serious for the Twins to put their best player on the shelf at the height of the Wild Card race. The Twins will turn to emergency starter Mike Smith in the short term and triple-A prospect Matt Garza should Liriano's injury prove more serious. Smith isn't good enough to keep the Twins in contention, but if the 22 year-old Garza comes in and blows everyone away as he has at every stop in the minors this season, (1.42 ERA at A, 2.51 AA, 1.85 AAA) Minnesota still has their hat in the ring.

A full schedule resumes tonight, with the most crucial games as follows:

Cardinals (Marquis) @ Reds (Milton)

Homers galore in this one.

Yankees (Wang) @ White Sox (Garcia)

The White Sox fight to play catch up with the AL East.

Rockies (Kim) @ Dodgers (Maddux)

The Mad Dog tries to stretch the streak to 11 games for LA.

Monday Nightcap

2006-08-07T22:35:00.000-05:00

The Tigers showed why they have the best record in baseball tonight, roundly beating the best young pitcher in the game. Fransisco Liriano was coming off of extra rest, but didn't seem all that rusty. He wasn't wild and didn't make all that many mistakes. However, the Tigers hitters were absolutely incredible tonight, bashing everything that came near the plate to put together a cool 10 hits and 4 runs on Liriano in 4 innings. The Twins position players did all they could to help the staff, as Mauer went deep and Morneau stroked two doubles. Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Tigers rocked the bullpen as well and finished the game on top 9 runs to 3. The Tigers are at this point completely ridiculous. Their lineup doesn't really have a weak spot, and their weaker offensive performers (Inge) provide spectacular defense. The bench is deep, with Omar Infante, Vance Wilson and Dmitri Young giving Jim Leyland some firepower from the bench. Most importantly, the pitching: Zach Miner was solid once again tonight, allowing 3 runs in 6 plus innings before handing it over to the reliable combination of Joel Zumaya and Jason Grilli. The White Sox also lost tonight, leaving three teams within 0.5 games of one another. The Wild Card may be too close to call, but I can guarantee the Tigers are the best team in the AL.
Jeff Weaver was great tonight as the Cardinals made quite the statement, routing the Reds 13 to 1. New Red Ryan Franklin was predictably Ryan Franklin-ish, letting up 3 in just over 4 innings. If the Dodgers and D'Backs win tonight, the NL Wild Card will be a three-way tie.

Monday Update

2006-08-07T13:31:00.000-05:00

The first big move of the post-deadline trade season went down earlier. The Diamondbacks acquired Livan Hernandez, in return sending two double-A pitchers to the Nationals.

In picking up Hernandez, the Diamondbacks are getting another middling pitcher to slot in alongside the many middling pitchers lurking behind Brandon Webb. The depth of the rotation is unquestionable, as any of these mediocre guys has the potential for a good game once in a while, and won't do too much harm every fifth day. With Brandon Webb's health in limbo, Hernandez represents a more practical alternative than say, Dustin Nippert. Livan has had a rough season tempered by a few good outings of late. He has become more and more hittable over time but he will still fight his way through 6 innings each time through the rotation. In the NL West, the Diamondbacks may not need much more than that to keep pace.
Regardless of whatever financial details are disclosed later, the Nationals have to be pleased about getting Hernandez's contract ($7 million in '07) off of the ledger. Player-wise, the Nationals pick up two 23 year-old minor league pitchers. Garrett Mock hasn't been good in double-A this season, posting a 4.95 ERA and more walks than you'd like to see. Matt Chico is the other pitcher involved. Chico has been strong in 13 double-A starts in 2006, picking up more strikeouts than hits and walking less than 3 per 9 innings pitched.

In a move seemingly inspired by the Kyle Lohse experiment, the Reds are apparently going to try to squeeze a solid day's work out of Ryan Franklin.

Franklin is clearly not a great pitcher, and at age 33, he wasn't a good pitcher earlier this season. Franklin hasn't posted a sub-5 FIP since 2002 and hasn't garnered a respectable K-rate since 2001. In other words, it's more of the same for the Reds. The Phillies get a player to be named later along with the good karma that goes along with ridding oneself of Ryan Franklin. In another bad-pitcher/Cincinatti Reds related story, Gary Majewski has been DL'ed, and according to cincinatti.com, he does indeed have minor league options left. Sounds like a good idea to me.

Monday Leadoff

2006-08-07T12:04:00.000-05:00

There are quite a few series kicking off today that are chock full of playoff implications and drama. Atlanta and Philadelphia fight each other to stay alive, San Fransisco tries to turn things around at Arizona, and Detroit attempts to end Minnesota's foray into the playoff picture. However, the most intriguing series beginning today may include two of the most frustratingly mediocre teams in the hunt.

The Cardinals travel to meet the Reds in the first of a pivotal four game set tonight. The Cardinals have tried their hardest to relinquish their NL Central lead, winning only 2 of their last 10 games. Somehow the Reds have failed to gain any ground despite their foe's missteps. Cincinnati seems to get great bullpen work...when they are behind, and great offense...right before the bullpen blows the whole thing up. Recent acquisition Gary Majewski's recent work out of the pen (11.32 ERA) should have Reds fans asking GM Wayne Krivsky some questions, namely, "Austin Kearns, for this?" Today's matchup isn't a sexy one, unless you enjoy watching the Reds score lots of runs. Jeff Weaver gets the nod for the Cardinals in what is probably his last chance to prove himself before Mark Mulder returns. Despite the change of scenery, St. Louis has not stopped Weaver from quickly becoming one of the more disappointing talents in recent history, as he has posted a 10.23 ERA in 5 starts with the 'Cards. Unheralded rookie Elizardo Ramirez goes for the Reds. Besides the cool name, the 23 year-old has a few things going for him. He's posted a favorable K/BB ratio (6.2/2.2) and FIP (4.04) in his rookie campaign. The Reds could use a good outing, because a sweep gives them a lead in the NL Central.

Sunday Update

2006-08-06T17:29:00.000-05:00

It appears the Brewers have cured the Cardinals of whatever was ailing them, as the Cardinals took the final two games of the series to snap out of a major losing streak. After today's 7-1 victory coupled with the Reds' loss, the Cardinals gain a full game on their small but not so tenuous lead (3.5 games) in the NL Central. Jeff Suppan was great today, escaping in the eighth and giving up only four hits and one run. Brewers ace Chris Capuano was strong as well, but wavered first and ended up with the loss despite his 7 K's in six innings. The Brewers' inability to take advantage of a struggling St. Louis club reinforces what was becoming even more apparent: the Brew Crew is out of it.

Also in the NL, the Giants got a great start out of a young pitcher for the second straight day. 21 year-old Matt Cain beat up on the Rockies for seven innings this afternoon, racking up 12 strikeouts in the process. Cain has a great fastball: he relies on a ridiculous 96 MPH four-seamer that runs away from hitters and a two-seamer that at 92 MPH, has nearly unhittable movement. Cain's breaking stuff isn't plus-plus by any means, but he's already league-average at 21; just wait five years. Cain also helped his own cause with an RBI single in the sixth inning.

Sunday On-Deck

2006-08-06T09:50:00.000-05:00

The first of a plethora of games this afternoon is a seemingly meaningless matchup between the Indians and Tigers. The Tigers have basically sewn up a playoff spot, while the Indians are just auditioning youngsters and playing for their dignity. However, the story from this game is Wil Ledezma, Detroit's starting pitcher. Or rather, who he is replacing. The Tigers have made the judicious decision to sit Justin Verlander today in an effort to keep his innings down as the summer wears on. Prior to this season, Verlander had never thrown more than 130 innings over the course of a season. As of now, Verlander has tossed 135.1 innings in 2006 with at least 10 starts remaining in the regular season. He hasn't yet shown signs of fatigue, but this and the eventual move to a 6-man rotation (when Maroth returns) are the kind of prudent decisions that will keep the Tigers ahead of the curve.

The best raw pitching duel of the day is in Toronto, where Jose Contreras takes on A.J. Burnett. The Blue Jays have all but fallen out of contention in the AL, and are getting pieces of their rotation (Chacin) back too late to make a difference. Burnett returned from his injury a few weeks ago, but has been unreliable at best. He has maintained a strong K-rate (8.3 per 9 IP) and refused to give any free passes (1.7/9 IP). To explain his 4.84 ERA, we must look at his batted ball info. Burnett is allowing more line drives and fly balls than in years past, and a greater percentage of those hits are clearing the fences than in previous seasons. However, the home run to line drive ratio has a tendency to level out over time, and we should expect to see his ERA deflate to somewhere under 4 in the near future. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, this is probably a case of 'too little too late'.

Saturday Nightcap

2006-08-05T23:07:00.000-05:00

There were several great outings from starting pitchers across the league today.

Javier Vazquez was downright unhittable against the usually-powerful Blue Jays this afternoon. Vazquez went 8 innings, striking out 13 Jays and only allowing a Troy Glaus solo home run. With the win, Chicago overtakes the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card standings. Unless Boston cuts bait on David Wells and starts giving the ball to Kyle Snyder (or anyone else with a pulse) in his stead, I can't imagine the Pale Hose will relinquish their hold on a playoff spot.

A matchup of undervalued young pitchers turned out to be an excellent one this evening as Noah Lowry went for the Giants against Jason Jennings and the Rockies. Lowry was especially impressive, throwing 9 innings and using an incredible changeup to befuddle the Giants' hitters and hold them to a single run. Jennings went 7 strong, failing to walk a batter and allowing only one run. The two were so evenly matched that neither will earn a decision. The game is currently in the bottom of the 11th with the Rockies up 2-1, Fuentes on to close. -EDIT- Bonds singles with two down in the 11th and everything is laid on Eliezer Alfonzo's shoulders. Fuentes goes upstairs with a heater to strike out the catcher, ending the game and putting the Giants 5 out of the Wild Card. Colorado stays 2.5 games down.

In another as-of-yet unfinished game, the Rocket finally got some run support. The Astros have scored 9 so far for Clemens, who has struck out 5 through 7 innings while allowing 3 runs. Perhaps because of his subpar W-L record, attention on the Clemens comeback has really dwindled of late. The 44 year-old is proving ageless, accruing a microscopic 2.32 ERA.

Leading off (Friday)

2006-08-04T11:07:00.000-05:00

A number of NL teams head into this weekend facing make-or-break series. The Atlanta Braves are one of these teams. 4.5 games out of the Wild Card and looking up at 9 teams, the Braves shot at the playoffs seemingly couldn't get much longer (Baseball Prospectus gives them a surprisingly high 7.24% chance of making the postseason). Bobby Cox and friends could seriously improve those odds by pulling off a sweep of the floundering Cincinatti Reds. The Reds have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot, failing to pull away from the pool of mediocrity that is the National League (minus the Mets). Heck, with the way the Cardinals are playing, the Reds have had to try their hardest not to trip and fall into the division lead. The Reds traded in their offense for late-inning pitching help, and are paying the price, finding out the hard way that a sturdy bullpen does no good when you score only 7 runs over the course of a three game series. Tonight's game sets up well for the Reds as they send staff ace Aaron Harang to the mound against Braves' rookie Chuck James. Thanks to a vastly improved K rate, Harang has enjoyed his best season and earned 4.3 wins over replacement in 2006. After a brief honeymoon period, James has fallen back to earth, allowing 4 runs or more in three of his last four starts. James' achilles heel has been the longball (2.2 per 9 IP). James needs to keep the Reds sluggers in the park tonight, as anything less than a sweep will probably keep Atlanta out of any realistic Wild Card discussion.

Thursday Rundown

2006-08-03T22:01:00.000-05:00

Greg Maddux's bid for his first career no-hitter was spoiled in the 7th - not by the Reds, but by the rain. A rain delay knocked Maddux out of his first game as a Dodger after he threw 6 hitless, scoreless innings. Joe Biemel came on in relief and allowed the first Red to reach with a single. The Dodgers struggled to get runners on against Eric Milton, scoring their only runs on an Olmedo Saenz 2-run homer. The Dodgers lead 2-0 in the 7th with Cincinatti threatening. *EDIT* Jon Broxton comes on to sit the Reds down in the 7th and the Dodgers' shutout continues.

There was no shortage of hits in Boston tonight as Jake Westbrook somehow managed to pull out a win while allowing 15 hits in 8 innings of choppy work. Westbrook allowed 3 doubles and 12 singles, but refused to work out of the strike zone, never allowing a walk. Westbrook has a decent sinker that results in a ton of groundballs, but it was apparent tonight that he's another plus pitch away from being anything more than average. Westbrook consistently hit his spots and stayed low in the zone with the sinker, but the Boston hitters knew what was coming every time and didn't seem to be too afraid of his slider. Josh Beckett brought his habit of allowing home runs on the road back to Fenway tonight and got pummelled for 7 runs in 6 innings. The loss, coupled with the Yankees' impressive win, puts the Red Sox back a game in the East.

Thursday Update

2006-08-03T20:09:00.000-05:00

The Royals signed #1 pick Luke Hochevar this afternoon, ending the lengthy Boras-infused negotiations. Hochevar will join the 40-man roster immediately and probably make it to AA by the summer's end. Apparently the hard thrower from Tennessee gets a $3.5 million signing bonus along with $5.3 million guaranteed. I'd expect to see him in KC by next September at the latest.

The Mets agreed to terms with shortstop Jose Reyes on a deal that will lock him up through 2010 with a club option for 2011. The Mets will control Reyes through his age-27 year for $23.25 million with the option on his age-28 season at $11 million. This is a great deal for the Mets, who won't actually pay that much (about $5.5M/yr) for what could be Reyes' most productive years, and can always cut bait if his career heads the wrong way. At 23 years old, Reyes has shown marked improvement every season, pushing his on-base percentage from .300 last season to .351 this year. PECOTA, Reyes' breakout 2006 campaign not-withstanding, says he'll be worth almost $40 million through 2010. By making preemptive moves like this one to secure their young core for the foreseeable future, the Mets are creating a team that could be a behemoth for quite a while.

Rumors are coming out of Boston about a potential waiver-wire pickup: Javy Lopez. Lopez wanted a trade before the deadline, and is clearly unhappy being used as a part-time DH in Baltimore. Lopez has definitely regressed at the plate (.268/.316/.412), and he can't catch well anymore (85 Rate), but he'd certainly give the Sox more than they'll get from Mirabelli/Huckaby. He'd be a good pickup, and could certainly be a boost off the bench come October.

Leading off (Thursday)

2006-08-03T10:55:00.000-05:00

The Yankees aim to all but eliminate the Blue Jays with a win and a series sweep this afternoon. New York turns to brand new 5th starter Cory Lidle, who will have a familiar face behind the dish in Sal Fasano. Lidle has a tough assignment against a Blue Jays lineup that brings a league high 207.8 combined VORP into today's game. Lidle will look to follow in Chien-Ming Wang's footsteps by using his sinker to induce ground balls from Toronto's big hitters. Things may look tough for Lidle, but Toronto starter Shawn Marcum has the market cornered on bad draws today. The 24 year-old has shown that he's capable of racking up strikeouts, but his habit of giving up free passes (5.5 per 9 innings) could be exploited by an uber-patient Yankee team.

Greg Maddux makes his Dodger debut as Los Angeles goes for the sweep of Cincinatti tonight. A win would bring the once-free falling Blue Crew only two games out of the NL Wild Card lead. Maddux's once unhittable fastball has finally become hittable (10.1 H/9 IP), forcing him to outsmart hitters and rely on his pinpoint control (1.5 BB/9) to get outs. Dodger Stadium should prove more spacious than the friendly confines, turning home runs into flyouts and lowering Maddux's ERA by quite a few points. Speaking of home runs, Eric Milton goes tonight for the Reds. Milton's been consistently mediocre this season, but needs to put together a few good outings to compensate for the underachieving Kyle Lohse joining the Reds' rotation.

Some pretty interesting information from Hit Tracker:

Of players with 10 or more home runs in 2006, these guys hit their blasts the furthest on average:

Alex Rodriguez - 421.4 ft

Jim Thome - 412.1 ft

Jeff Francoeur - 409.8 ft

These guys are at the bottom of the list, barely squeaking the dingers over the fences.

Craig Biggio - 366.5 ft.

Austin Kearns - 370.6 ft.
Jeromy Burnitz - 373.7 ft.

Wednesday Nightcap

2006-08-02T23:07:00.000-05:00

The Cardinals brought their bats to to the ballpark tonight but left the pitching at home. Jeff Weaver and a host of relievers got knocked around by Philadelphia tonight to the tune of 16-8. Chase Utley didn't hit the ball too hard this evening, but came away 2-for-6 to extend his hit streak to 33 games. I've seen the stats on this but can't recall them off the top of my head: I know Utley is batting above .400 during the streak, and has been better than teammate Jimmy Rollins was in his 2005-06 streak. I'm wondering how Utley's streak compares to other 30+ game hit streaks in terms of runs over replacement. Utley doesn't seem to be hitting at a torrid rate or putting up gaudy power numbers, instead going about things in a more slow and steady way. On the losing side of the game, the Cardinals have now dropped 6 straight and 7 of their last 10. Cincinatti lost, so the St. Louis lead is still 3.5 games, but a rotation made up of Chris Carpenter and a bucket of prayers clearly isn't working out. The bullpen is (usually) good, the lineup certainly has the pieces (Pujols, Rolen, Eckstein), but when you're getting starts from a Weaver not named Jered, you're in for some beatings.

It looks like the Dodgers have chosen to send Aaron Sele into the long relief spot in the pen while rookie Chad Billingsley will stay in the rotation for the time being. Should Billingsley falter or Maddux get sore, either the capable Brett Tomko or Sele will be there as a reinforcement. Should Nomar get healthy soon, the Dodgers look primed for a run in the NL West.

The Mets demoted top pitching prospect Mike Pelfrey today, deciding to keep John Maine on the big league roster. Pelfrey's callup wasn't full of Liriano-style brilliance, but he showed his potential as a #2 or #3 starter and most importantly, didn't suffer any psyche-shattering shellings. The lanky right-hander finished with an FIP of 4.70 but walked over 5 per 9 innings. Once Pelfrey can develop another plus pitch to go along with a nasty fastball, he should be well on his way to some success in the Big Apple.

Update

2006-08-02T20:09:00.000-05:00

The Oakland A's got exactly what they needed today: a strong outing from Esteban Loaiza. Loaiza has been one of the worst pitchers in the AL this year, effectively penciling in a loss every fifth day on the A's schedule. He worked into the 6th today and earned a no decision, as Mark Kotsay singled in the winning run in the 8th. The A's are now 2.5 games ahead of the Angels after the series win.
The Yankees have modified the lineup tonight, batting Bobby Abreu 3rd and Craig Wilson 6th. Jason Giambi gets the night off while Bernie is doing the designated hitting. So far, the lineup has gelled and the 3rd through 6th spots are a combined 8-12 through 6 innings. This sort of offensive firepower could be too much for any team to handle down the stretch.

Leading Off

2006-08-02T10:57:00.000-05:00

The Wild Card races are turning out to be quite wild indeed, as every day seems to lend new intrigue to the situations in both leagues.

In the AL, the four major contenders are all great teams. The Yankees and Red Sox are enjoying their annual sprint toward September while Chicago and Minnesota are making noise out of the AL Central. At this point it looks like Toronto's 3-7 slide has put them out of contention at 6.5 games back, but a team with two potential aces and an incredible lineup is never completely down and out. Here's how today looks for the teams involved in the AL Wild Card race:

The Twins will rely on emergency starter Boof Bonser to replace a sore Fransisco Liriano this afternoon against the Rangers. In his first 7 starts, Bonser has posted a strong K/BB ratio but has given up over 2 homers per 9 innings. Carlos Lee could hit his first as a Ranger.
Boston is involved in a matchup of strong rookie pitchers this evening when Jeremy Sowers leads the Indians against the Red Sox' Jon Lester. Sowers has pitched beautifully in his last two outings, but a suspect K rate (3.3 per 9 IP) and an abnormally low BABIP (.237) could mean he's due for a wake up call. The Red Sox will go without catcher and team captain Jason Varitek for the second straight night. Varitek was struggling at the plate this season (.243/.331/.411), but he hadn't been Doug Mirabelli-bad (.181/.259/.314).
The Yankees send their stud groundballer Chien-Ming Wang against the Blue Jays tonight in an effort to put the Blue Jays further back in the rear view mirror. Wang will be supported by the Yankees' freshly revamped juggernaut of a lineup, now featuring the following on-base percentages from leadoff through the six-hole: .369, .427, .401, .384, .425, .388. Oh yeah, some of those guys can hit home runs, too.
After narrowly escaping the jaws of a semi-revitalized Kansas City team last night, the White Sox go for the sweep at Kauffman Stadium. The White Sox will try to get a decent start out of Freddy Garcia, by all accounts the weakest link in a rotation that hasn't looked good lately. Garcia seems to finally be pitching like the fourth starter (at best) he's hinted at being for the past several seasons. Freddy still throws strikes, but his strikes don't miss bats quite as often, resulting in a .285 batting average against and a 5.12 FIP.

The NL Wild Card race is shaping up a bit differently. Most of the league is still in the hunt, a fact that can be attributed to the sheer mediocrity of most NL clubs. While the AL race is exciting because of the high level of play, the NL can present just as much excitement. Teams like the Dodgers and Rockies are going on losing streaks, putting together a string of a few wins, and finding themselves only 4 games out of the lead. It may not be pretty, but it's fun.

The Dodgers try to pull within 3 games of a struggling Reds squad tonight as staff ace Brad Penny gets the call against steady rookie Elizardo Ramirez at the Great American Ballpark. Despite the 70 pound discrepancy in size, the two pitchers are pretty similar statistically: they get quite a few strikeouts while allowing quite a few hits but minimizing damage by avoiding walks and home runs.
Colorado and Milwaukee try to edge closer to the lead as they continue what has been a well-pitched series at Coors. Japan (Tomo Ohka) meets Korea (Byun-Hyun Kim) tonight in a matchup between two pitchers who are enjoying some under-the-radar success this season. With such a mishmash of shaky relief work from Turnbow/Kolb/Cordero, the Brewers need great outings from the rotation.

AL West Update

2006-08-01T23:30:00.000-05:00

The Angels and Athletics are playing another close one tonight, with LAA winning 3-2 in the 8th currently. Oakland edged out LAA last night on a two-run shot by Milton Bradley. Tonight an Orlando Cabrera single is all that stands between the two teams. Prospect Joe Saunders got the start in place of Bartolo Colon, and didn't disappoint, tossing 7 innings and yielding only 2 runs. If the Angels win tonight, the spread will be only half a game in what could possibly be the most exciting division race of all, accounting for the pitching talent that these two teams possess.

Oh, I almost forgot...with a win tonight, the Yankees took the AL East lead by a matter of a few percentage points. I'm loving this.

Update

2006-07-31T19:19:00.000-05:00

Lots and lots of trades went down this afternoon, leaving me utterly dazed and confused. Let's try to do this chronologically:

Having lost their second best reliever, Duaner Sanchez, for the rest of the season, the Mets made a move to fill out their bullpen. New York sent starting right fielder Xavier Nady to the Pirates for elderly reliever Roberto Hernandez and failed prospect Oliver Perez.

The Mets add a rather average pitcher in Hernandez. Hernandez has pitched well in what is his age 41 season and the end of his contract. He still gives up enough walks to make things exciting from time to time, but he won't completely kill the performance of what is the majors' elite bullpen. The addition of Perez is a bit less rosy. After flourishing in his first several major league years, Perez has hit the skids - hard. 2005 was horrible, 2006 even worse for the 24 year-old left-hander. His strikeout rate has fallen for three straight seasons while his walk rate has skyrocketed to over 6 per 9 innings. Earlier this summer the Pirates decided they had endured enough and sent him to AAA. His peripherals have looked solid in Indianapolis, but the 5.63 ERA looks foreboding. Talent-for-talent, the Mets got the raw end of this trade in ceding Xavier Nady. At 27 years old, Nady started most of the time in right for the Mets this season, providing an average bat and subpar glove. His .271 EQA isn't great, but it's better than the Milledge(.239)/Chavez (.265) combination that will replace him. Truth be told, the Mets didn't struggle with Nady on the DL earlier this season, so they'll be fine without him. However, I don't think what they get from Hernandez is enough to cover the gap between Nady and his replacements.

For the Pirates, this deal is so-so. The elderly Hernandez is of no use to a team focused on the future, and Oliver Perez is of no use to any team, no matter what. In the end, they shed some baggage and get a pretty average player in return. The Pirates' official depth chart has Nady at first base for the time being, which is odd, but I'm sure he'll fill the role left open by Craig Wilson's departure: playing the corner positions and first at random intervals.

Soon after making the move for Nady, the Pirates decided to replace the horrible starting pitcher they just discarded with another similarly horrible starting pitcher, Shawn Chacon. The Yankees recieve Craig Wilson as compensation.

The Pirates shouldn't expect too much from Chacon, whose 2005 luck quickly ran out in 2006, leading to an ERA of 7.00. Alas, this is what happens when you walk 36 and strike out only 35. It seems the Coors effect is following poor Shawn, begging the question, "Shouldn't it be called the Chacon effect?"

The Yankees get another piece to add to their behemoth of a bench in Craig Wilson. Wilson has been notoriously under-utilized by the Pirates, despite his 20 homer potential. He'll probably get even less playing time in New York considering the cornucopia of corner outfield types, but he could be an important cog in what looks to be a finely tuned winning machine in the Bronx. Aaron Guiel was optioned to AAA, and Andy Phillips probably won't see as much of the field after this move. I liked Guiel and like Phillips, but there really isn't room for quadruple-A guys on a team gunning for a title.

The Dodgers made two big trades today, both of which help with their depth.

First, Los Angeles grabbed Greg Maddux from Chicago for infielder Cesar Izturis. Maddux certainly isn't the pitcher he once was, but he is still around league average in the NL. Moving to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium should help Maddux's ERA (4.69) into the same range as his FIP (3.85). The pickup gives the Dodgers an incredibly deep rotation that includes three established veterans near the top. Either Aaron Sele, Mark Hendrickson, or Chad Billingsley will become a long reliever, giving the team lots of flexibility in a bullpen that is already a position of strength. Second, the Dodgers picked up infielder Julio Lugo from Tampa Bay. Lugo was made redundant in Tampa by the arrival of Ben Zobrist, and his contract demands were, quite frankly, a bit ridiculous. The Dodgers have a very crowded infield picture, with Betemit manning third, Furcal at short, Kent at second, Nomar at first, and Lugo as the utility man. Furcal's recent hot streak considered, when healthy, the Dodgers possess a very potent offensive infield.
Making things even sunnier in Chavez Ravine is the fact that Cesar Izturis is no longer wearing Dodger blue. In a horrific lapse in judgment, the Cubs decided they wanted to augment their hit-allergic infield by adding yet another player with a terrible aversion to the stick. Admittedly, Todd Walker was horrible with the glove and Izturis is a wizard, but Cesar just can't hit. Izturis is in the middle of his second straight .223 EQA season and hits home runs about as often as his new employer wins the world series. Come to think of it, there may be a reason the Cubs aren't winning those championships...
For Lugo, the Dodgers sent the Devil Rays prospects Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza. This deal is understandable for Tampa Bay because Lugo's contract demands proved to be far beyond what the team was willing to pay. The 21 year-old Guzman is a supersized infielder-turned-outfielder who swings a big bat. Guzman has posted a .297/.353/.464 line in AAA this season, which is where he'll start for Tampa. Guzman is shaky in the field, but the Rays could use someone to man a corner outfield spot in the stead of Damon Hollins or Greg Norton come next spring. Pedroza is also an outfielder; he's 22 years old and posting a .999 OPS in A-ball. Pedroza could be a long time coming, but he's merely icing on this deal for the Devil Rays. Also happening on the Tampa front: big time prospects B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist were called up today to fill the left side of the infield vacated by the injured Ty Wigginton and the freshly departed Lugo.

Leading off

2006-07-31T12:00:00.000-05:00

After letting it sink in a bit, I feel much better about yesterday's Bobby Abreu deal. Abreu is owed $4.4 million in 2006, $15 million in 2007, and either $2 million (buyout) or $16 million (option) in 2008. This is a huge contract, and probably overvalues Abreu by quite a bit. However, getting off the hook in 2008 is a huge win for the Yankees in case Abreu flops in New York. Also, Abreu's presence probably counts Gary Sheffield out in 2007, effectively wiping $13 million off of the books. Taking Sheffield's missing contract into consideration, the Yankees will pay about $8.5 million extra for one and a half years of Abreu or $22.5 million for two and a half. Keep in mind that Abreu is 5 years Sheffield's junior. Sounds good to me. As great as Abreu will be in pinstripes, the real grab in the deal might be Cory Lidle. Although at 34 years old Lidle isn't anyone's idea of a Cy Young winner, he presents a gigantic improvement over Sidney Ponson/Shawn Chacon at the back of the rotation. Lidle may struggle to be even a passable starter in the AL, but look at the other pitchers available on the market: Livan Hernandez, Greg Maddux, etc. I would take Lidle and his expiring contract over those two any day of the week. I would like to thank Brian Cashman in advance for ensuring that October will finally be filled with fun once again.

The Tigers and Pirates made a deal today, swapping Sean Casey for AA pitcher Brian Rogers.

Pirates fans have got to be pleased with this deal, as it gets the remainder of Casey's $8.5 million off of the ledger while clearing room for the younger, better Craig Wilson (or Ryan Doumit, if he can ever get healthy) at first base. Casey, 32, has been pretty mediocre this season, falling in the bottom third of regular first basemen in terms of offensive production (right between Millar and Sexson) and offering his trademark so-so defense. The Pirates not only dump salary and clear space with this move, but add a pretty good minor league pitcher. Rogers is 24 years old and succeeding in AA as a reliever, striking out more than a hitter an inning while letting up a .213 batting average against.
This deal isn't especially good or bad news for the Tigers. In my eyes, this looks to be a deal for the sake of dealing; letting the fans know the organization is hell-bent on making a run at a title (with Sean Casey at the helm?). They've demoted Chris Shelton to AAA, meaning Casey will take the first base job immediately and probably indefinitely. Casey isn't quite the hitter or fielder that the younger, cheaper Shelton is. So why make this move, you ask? The Tigers probably feel they need a left-handed hitter to add balance in their lineup. They also felt the need to get a higher OBP into the lineup. The addition of Casey fills both of those needs, as they replace a SLG-heavy righty with an OBP-type lefty. This is the kind of move that could help them win a few games down the stretch. This trade only turns ugly for Detroit if they resign Casey and trot him out there for the next few years because he's so "friendly".

The Reds made two more additions to their pitching stable this morning, adding veteran reliever Rheal Cormier and the inconsistent Kyle Lohse.

The Reds have completely retooled their bullpen, and despite the short-sightedness of the Bray/Majewski pickup, have made improvements. At 39, Cormier is probably closer to his 4.61 FIP than his 1.59 ERA, but he keeps the ball on the ground and shouldn't have too much to worry about in the Great American (long)Ballpark. Cormier comes with a $2.25 million price tag in 2007, by all means too much - but Wayne Krivsky is clearly set on the playoffs in 2006. The Phillies get right-hander Justin Germano in return. Germano is a 23 year-old with decent numbers in AAA (3.69 ERA) and one big-league start under his belt. He looks to be a fairly average pitcher and a decent return on Cormier for the Phils.
Philadelphia pulled also managed Kyle Lohse off of Minnesota's scrap heap today. With all the good pitching up in the twin cities these days, Lohse and his bad pitching were no longer considered integral parts of the Twins future. Realistically, Lohse isn't anything more than a long reliever, but he is lots better than the Reds previous 5th starter experiment Joe Mays. Lohse is a fly ball pitcher stepping into a bandbox of a ballpark in Cincy, so I wouldn't expect anything more than replacement-level. Other than about $1 million in Lohse-salary, the Reds give up 22 year-old pitcher Zach Ward. Ward is by all accounts a great pickup for a Minnesota organization with a keen eye for pitching talent. Ward has a 2.29 ERA in 18 AA starts and best of all has struck out 95 while allowing only 74 hits(!). The Twins get the better player, regardless of whatever name recognition Lohse may have.

Nightcap

2006-07-30T23:48:00.000-05:00

At this point it seems like the Astros are trying to lose every time Roger Clemens takes the hill. The Rocket pitched 7 efficient innings today, allowing only 2 hits while striking out 9 D'Backs. However, left with the small responsibility of getting 6 outs, the Astros bullpen collectively allowed 6 runs and thusly blew the game. Late home runs by Eric Byrnes and Conor Jackson put Arizona over the top on a day which surprisingly featured quite a bit of firepower from Houston's weak offense. Clemens really can't be satisfied with the way his season has gone, despite the miniscule 2.05 ERA he's sporting.

Also from the NL Central, a team going the opposite way: up. The Brewers took the rubber game from the Reds today, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat (Derrick Turnbow), 4-3. Ben Sheets showed Milwaukee fans what they've been missing all season, racking up double-digit strikeouts and getting the win. Two 9th inning home runs and a pair of Turnbow walks almost turned the game on its head, but newly acquired Fransisco Cordero shut the door. Also playing well were newly minted Brewers Tony Graffanino (2-4) and Kevin Mench (3-4, HR, 4 RBI). In looking over the box score, I noticed that the Reds have gotten solid contributions from several guys who would've been considered role players coming into the season. Rich Aurilia is hitting .285/.340/.515 with 14 home runs while Scott Hatteberg is rolling along at .325/.416/.503. The most pleasant and most publicized surprise is the once-shunned Brandon Phillips, who despite cooling off of late is still providing a .292 batting average at second base.

The Cardinals inexplicably traded for Ronnie Belliard today and in the process got both older and poorer. The Cards gave up Hector Luna, who is 5 years younger, a tenth as expensive, and Belliard's equal with the bat. Admittedly, Belliard can flash some leather, but Luna has a great deal of versatility in the field and is posting a .267 EQA in his year 26 season. Belliard brings a comparable .270 EQA to the table (age 31) and doesn't offer enough with the glove to justify this deal. Aaron Miles will see less playing time (good news, Cardinals fans), but at the same time the only thing the Cardinals gain is an extremely humorous looking double play combo in the elfish Eckstein and the mini-Manny himself, Belliard.

Update

2006-07-30T15:33:00.000-05:00

*EDIT* I like this move significantly more for the Yankees now that I know they won't be obligated to pay Abreu in 2008. They only owe him for the 2006-2007 seasons, making this move a lot more palatable.*

The deal I've been hoping against has finally come to fruition this afternoon. The Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle from the Phillies, in return relinquishing a few as yet unnamed prospects. This deal isn't a swap of players for either team as much as it is a salary dump on the Phillies part and a salary grab for the Yankees.

The Phillies have plenty of outfielders (Dellucci, Victorino) to play out the season with, and Randy Wolf's return crowds their rotation. The Phils would've owed Abreu $15 million in 2007, so this deal gives them the flexability to go after a big-name pitcher in the offseason. Lidle, old and mediocre, was purely redundant in a rotation that already contains Jon Lieber. With better veterans like Wolf and Brett Myers, and younger alternatives like Cole Hamels and Ryan Madson waiting in the wings, Lidle was dead weight.
The Yankees are essentially trading their money for Abreu and Lidle, making these a little bit like a pair of free agent pickups. Abreu is the more expensive of the two, as the Yankees will pick up the $5 million-ish remaining for 2006, the $15 million for 2007, and most likely the $16 million option in 2008. Abreu is 32 years old, so the Yankees will be responsible for him through his age 34 season. Don't get me wrong, I love Abreu and his .427 OBP, but his flagging power has diminished his value each of the past three years. Abreu is playing right at his 50th percentile PECOTA projection, suggesting that his monetary value over the next two years will be about $16 million. This deal is vintage Yankees: pay twice what's necessary for no apparent reason. Abreu is ultimately unnecessary in the Bronx because of the emergence of Melky Cabrera as a viable starting outfielder. He's only 21, has an incredible arm, and isn't a total loss at the plate (.281/.353/.392). While the Bernie Williams/Aaron Guiel platoon in right field isn't a permanent solution, Hideki Matsui is projected back within a month. Besides, I could stand another month of Bernie (.267 EQA) and Guiel (.277 EQA) if it meant saving $35 million over the next 2 years. I don't object much to Lidle's inclusion in the deal, because he's better than Sidney Ponson and he doesn't present a big financial obligation. Lidle will be owed about $1.5 million for the rest of the season, after which he is set free (at 34 years old, hopefully to somewhere far from New York). Lidle is basically an average back of the rotation starter, something the Yankees could stand to carry right now.

The names of the involved prospects are out: shortstop C.J. Henry, lefty reliever Matt Smith, catcher Jesus Sanchez, and righty Carlos Monasterios. Henry, the Yankees 20 year-old first round pick in 2005, has been disappointing at class A, hitting .237/.326/.350. Matt Smith is a non-prospect, a 27 year-old left-handed specialist who didn't allow a run in 12 big league innings this season. In AAA, Smith has a 2.08 ERA and in my opinion is every bit as good as Mike Myers. Jesus Sanchez, 18, is putting up a .264/.343/.319 line in 91 rookie-ball at bats. Carlos Monasterios is a 20 year-old righty who has posted a 2.97 ERA in rookie-ball while walking only one batter every 10 innings. The Yankees aren't losing much with any of these players, although Matt Smith could've helped the team's bullpen depth down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Phillies get a project with lots of potential in C.J. Henry.

Leading off

2006-07-30T09:44:00.000-05:00

It's a big day for the Texas Rangers as they try to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals. Mired in a 6 game losing streak, the Rangers sit 3 games behind Oakland in the AL West. Since having made what by all accounts was a good move several days ago, the Rangers have lost two straight to the worst team in the AL. The losses can't be blamed on the imports, considering Carlos Lee is hitting .625/.667/.750 as a Ranger. After a gut-wrenching loss in the series finale against the Yankees, the Rangers just haven't been getting the right combination of pitching and hitting that is needed to pick up wins. The Royals, on the other hand, have been putting together some pretty decent games recently. Since June 3rd, the Royals have put together a 24-26 record; certainly not stellar, but a large improvement over the first several months. What happened on June 3rd, you ask? Mark Teahen was recalled from Omaha. The 24 year-old third baseman had failed to live up to expectations in 2005 and was putting up a .195/.241/.351 line in the season's first month, so the Royals demoted him. Whatever he did in AAA really, really worked. Since his recall, Teahen has raked to the tune of .313/.401/.578 while providing steady glove work. In July he has been especially torrid, racking up a 1.133 OPS and hitting a home run every 12 at-bats. The Royals' 2005 first round pick, third baseman Alex Gordon, is playing well in AA and is by all accounts major league-ready. With Teahen playing so well, the Royals may have some position switching to do at the start of 2007. Today Teahen and the Royals attempt to play spoiler once again as staff "ace"(?) Mark Redman takes on Rangers' rookie John Koronka.

Leading off

2006-07-29T11:34:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    The most interesting game of the day is between two teams barely holding onto division leads. The streaking Angels come into Fenway to face the Red Sox having won 11 of their last 15. Most importantly for the Angels, Jered Weaver takes the mound. The 23 year-old Weaver has posted a 1.15 ERA and .164 BAA. The key to Weaver's success has been negating opposing hitters' ability to hit home runs despite inducing a fairly high number of fly balls. Studies suggest that low home run totals usually are a matter of chance, suggesting Weaver may fall back to earth sometime soon. Weaver's expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is at 4.36: certainly good for a rookie, but substantially higher than his actual ERA. Only time will tell, but if any team is going to speed Weaver's regression towards the mean I'd bet on it being the Red Sox. Josh Beckett, he of the decieving 13-5 record, gets the call for the Red Sox. He'll have his work cut out for him against an Angels team that has been red-hot recently. Howie Kendrick and Juan Rivera have sparked the Angels recent surge with July batting averages of .483 and .368, respectively.

    From the wire -

    The most important trade of last night may not have too much bearing on what happens down the stretch this season. The Braves acquired reliever Danys Baez and infield prospect Willy Aybar from the Dodgers, who recieved super-sub Wilson Betemit. This is definitely not either a great move or a reprehensible one from Atlanta's perspective. Baez, though only 28 years old, has seen a slip in production this season. His K rate has slipped to 5.3 per 9 innings, and according to Baseball Prospectus, he and his -.023 Win Expectation above Replacement have been the most subpar among regular Dodger relievers this season. Baez may be better than Macay McBride, but don't count on him being better than average. The addition of Willy Aybar is a more commendable one to be sure. The Braves obviously realize that Marcus Giles and his .249 EQA are not worthy of a contract extension and that Pete Orr is simply not a major leaguer. Aybar,23, should fill second base for the Braves from 2007 onward and provide a good deal of production at the plate (.315/.383/.538 in AAA). However, Wilson Betemit is a high price to pay for Baez and Aybar. Betemit, who was involved in a birth-certificate scandal at the time of his signing, is only 24 years old. Betemit provides a decent glove at every infield position and is coming into his own as a hitter. He projects as either a third baseman with an average stick or a power-hitting middle infielder. The Dodgers' infield is crowded for the next couple of seasons, but with Bill Mueller's future still uncertain, Betemit is a good find for Los Angeles. In summary, the Braves haven't added enough with Baez to give them any more of a shot at the playoffs. At the same time, they swapped out a good young infielder for a potentially good young infielder, not really putting a damper on future plans. I guess the most reasonable question would be, "Why?"

    The Brewers received David Bell and sent single-A pitcher Wilfrido Laureano to the Phillies. Bell (.278/.345/.398) hasn't been quite as horrible as he was last season, but he's still not a guy you want playing, ever. Especially when, in the Brewers' case, you already have two capable third basemen in Jeff Cirillo (.326/.386/.430) and Tony Graffanino (.262/.337/.402) on the roster. Brewers GM Doug Melvin sure has a funny way of trying to make the playoffs, doesn't he? On the positive side of things, the Brewers seemingly don't lose much in giving the Phillies the 22 year-old Laureano. He's a high-K, high-BB guy who at 6'6" and 165 pounds doesn't seem all that durable.

    The Giants did what the Braves should've, stealing Mike Stanton from the Nationals for A-ball pitcher Shairon Martis. Despite the 4th worst bullpen in the majors, and a situation comparable to that of Atlanta, San Fransisco has managed to stay in the wild card race. Unlike Atlanta, they acquired a veteran pitcher with a track record of durability and decent performance at little cost. Stanton has kept a decent strikeout rate (6.1/9 IP) and should help the team down the stretch. The Nationals come away with Martis, who at 19 years old has looked great in A-ball. He holds a 3.64 ERA and has walked only 21 hitters in 76+ innings. Sure, the Giants may have sacrificed some future success for potential success in the present, but they didn't have to give up a player like Wilson Betemit.

Update

2006-07-28T20:59:00.000-05:00

    The Indians got some immediate help from Shin-Soo Choo, as he started in right and produced the game's only run on a solo homer. Rookie Jeremy Sowers out-dueled Feliz Hernandez in route to his second straight complete game shutout. His last two games combined: 18 IP, 9 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K; 159 strikes/66 balls. The Indians must be regretting the fact that his callup came a bit late.

    Chien-Ming Wang threw a beautiful game like only he can. Wang pulled a complete game shutout on the Devil Rays despite only striking out 1 hitter. Wang pitched the same way he always has: he relied on his excellent sinker to induce groundout after groundout. Despite some pretty ugly peripheral statistics, he's got this particular stathead convinced. Once again, Yankees win.

    As I type, Ross Gload has given the White Sox a 6-4 lead over the Orioles on a grand slam in the top of the ninth. He took what appeared to be a good pitch from Chris Ray over the wall in left to assist the Sox in their pursuit of the Yankees. Eric Bedard pitched a good one, but won't get the win.

Update

2006-07-28T15:53:00.000-05:00

Watching the Cardinals vs. Cubs, I've been contemplating whether Tony LaRussa is using Chris Duncan properly. Duncan is a good hitter (.291/.339/.524) who has got some pop in his bat. LaRussa has slotted him into the #2 hole for much of the year though he seems better suited to the #5 or #6 spot. His splits suggest he's been successful at #2 (.864 OPS), but the Cards have a tailor-made #2 guy in Hector Luna (.297/.361/.425). Looking at a series of comparisons from FanGraphs I noticed Luna takes more walks, strikes out less, and gets on base more often than Duncan. Though both Juan Encarnacion and Jim Edmonds are finally rounding into shape as the season progresses, I wonder if the Cardinals wouldn't be better served by giving Duncan some more RBI chances.

Leading off

2006-07-28T13:42:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    The hottest midseason callup of 2005 faces one of the top midseason callups of 2006 when the Mariners visit the Indians tonight. Felix Hernandez gets the call for Seattle against Jeremy Sowers and Cleveland. King Felix hasn't carried over much of his 2005 success into 2006, struggling with inconsistency and watching his ERA balloon to 4.76. Looking at the numbers, the culprit appears to be the kind of contact hitters are making with his pitches. Hernandez is striking out and walking batters at nearly the same clip as last season, but his batting average against has jumped from .204 to .273. Hernandez is allowing home runs about twice as often in 2006 and has seen his percentage of ground balls induced fall from 67% to 56%. I haven't watched enough of Hernandez to offer a prognosis, but Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus writes that hitters have made a mental note of Hernandez' reluctance to throw breaking balls over the plate. Silver comes to the conclusion that being only 20 years old, King Felix has plenty of time to snap out of his funk.

    From the wire -

    Earlier this afternoon the first "big" move of the trade season went down as Texas acquired Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz from Milwaukee for Kevin Mench, Fransisco Cordero, Laynce Nix, and Julian Cordero. The thing to keep in mind with this trade is that none of these players are on the hook for 2007. In fact, Fransisco Cordero is the only player with any '07 stipulation ($5 million club option). This allows us to look at this trade from an on-field talent/need perspective first, and a financial perspective second. Taking that into account, this trade certainly fills needs for both parties. Carlos Lee will take over at designated hitter for the Rangers for at least the remainder of 2006, where he should give a substantial boost to a Texas offense wracked by inconsistency (rd: Kevin Mench). Lee has posted a .295 EQA so far this season to Mench's .273. Lee is on pace to rack up 44 home runs, a total that should increase playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Ameriquest. The Rangers also recieve outfielder Nelson Cruz, who could turn out to be a good investment down the road. Cruz, 26, was the Brewers minor league player of the year in 2005 and has posted a .302/.378/.528 line in AAA this season. The Rangers will mix him in with DeRosa and Wilkerson in the outfield and use him as a fourth outfielder until his time as a starter comes.    The Brewers also fill a gaping hole with this deal. In addition to Mench, who is probably just a place-holder until Corey Hart/Gabe Gross/Tony Gwynn Jr. is ready, Milwaukee picks up a more legitimate closer. In the past few weeks, Derrick Turnbow has finally turned into the pumpkin that he has always been, necessitating a change at the back of the bullpen. Fransisco Cordero may have lost his job to Akinori Otsuka in April, but he has been very good since. Cordero has struck out 10 per 9 innings while cutting his walk totals and in the process earning a 3.49 FIP. In my opinion, however, Cordero won't be enough to push the Brewers into the playoffs. The inclusion of Laynce Nix in the deal seems like a throwaway by the Rangers. Career numbers like .241/.278/.414 don't really warrant an inclusion on a roster that already includes useful pieces like Corey Hart and Gabe Gross. The final addition to the Brewers' stable is Julian Cordero, a 21 year-old pitcher who has posted good numbers (2.91) in single-A this season.   As far as winners and losers go, I like Texas in this deal. Texas improves not only their chances at the playoffs this season (Lee) but also their future (Cruz). On the other side, the Brewers gain just enough to convince the fans that they haven't given up on 2006 and manage to escape the offseason distraction that would be resigning Carlos Lee. What the Brewers don't gain, however, is enough talent to actually improve their shot at the postseason.

The Rundown

2006-07-27T22:54:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    Ryan Dempster and the Cubs are currently trying to put a stamp on game one of their series with St. Louis. This matchup had 'high scoring' written all over it, but hasn't provided all that much in the way of offense. In fact, the Cubs' go-ahead run wasn't even earned, as the normally sure-handed Scott Rolen botched a fairly routine ground ball to let up a run. Rich Hill took the mound for the Cubs and cemented in my mind what I've read many times about him. He epitomizes the 'quadruple-A' pitcher. The 26 year-old Hill has been untouchable in AAA this season, striking out 135 in 100 innings to tally a 1.80 ERA. The majors have been another story altogether. Hill hasn't shown the ability to miss bats or hit the strike zone, posting a borderline-ridiculous 9.53 ERA. This was the story once again tonight, as Hill showed flashes with a sweeping curve but got hammered every time he elevated his fastball (this happened far too often). He relented 3 walks, 6 hits, and 4 runs before being pulled in the 4th. On the other side of the box score, Jeff Weaver was quite a bit better. He allowed 10 hits, but didn't walk a single Cub and made it into the 6th inning, ultimately ceding 4 runs. Weaver had trouble keeping the ball down all night, but stayed around the strike zone and showed off a decent slider. Watching Sidney Ponson's work as a Yankee has me convinced that the Cardinals made the right call. Weaver isn't great shakes by any means, but I think he could be a useful guy if used in a long relief role.

    From the wire -

    The Royals signed Cincinatti castoff Esteban Yan and sent him to AAA Omaha. I have a feeling Yan is the Leo Nunez insurance policy.

    The Twins gave 35 year-old catcher Mike Redmond a 2 year contract extension. This seems brash in light of the fact that of all the over-achieving Twins, Redmond may be the biggest over-achiever (.330/.336/.400; 116 Rate) of them all. This doesn't seem so brash in light of the fact that the money is probably unsubstantial, seeing as how he's a backup catcher and all.

Leading off

2006-07-27T10:35:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    A few loose ends are tied up and several four game series get under way today as part of a short schedule. There isn't too much intrigue in most of these matchups, but the best is probably the late game between the Blue Jays and Athletics.

    After losing a series to the Mariners, the Blue Jays are looking up from third place in the East and fourth in the wild card standings. A.J. Burnett got handed the loss last night, something that just cannot happen if Toronto expects to climb back into the playoff picture. With Gustavo Chacin aching, the rotation is leaning on two rookies and hoping for the best. Luckily for the Jays, Ted Lilly has been steady in the #3 role. Whenever the lefty takes the hill it seems like the end is always prettier than the means employed. He has allowed over 4 walks per 9 innings to go along with nearly 1.5 homers per 9. Regardless of the odd peripherals, Lilly has managed to post a deft 3.89 ERA in 20 starts, and has given the Blue Jays an opportunity to win every fifth day. The A's are also involved in a pennant race, entering Thursday tied for the AL West lead. The A's offense is decidedly ugly, being buoyed by power hitters Frank Thomas and Nick Swisher. Today they turn to Joe Blanton, a 25 year-old righty who embodies the term 'average'. However, without Rich Harden in the rotation Blanton has been a godsend, eating innings consistently until handing things over to the A's strong bullpen. Now about this whole Esteban Loaiza thing...

The Rundown

2006-07-26T23:45:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    The complexion of the AL playoff race was completely altered by the events of this afternoon and evening. The White Sox couldn't hang with the Twins as Mark Buehrle continued the rotation's slide towards mediocrity. Buehrle gave up a smattering of runs to a Twins offense that really spread out the hits, getting 3 from Justin Morneau, 3 from Jason Bartlett, and 16 total. It's becoming evident as the runs pile up that the White Sox starting pitching is not 2005-caliber. In fact, the White Sox' only above average starter at this point in the season is Contreras (3.52 ERA, 37.1 VORP).

    The Red Sox came into Wednesday in the middle of an offensive binge, but were purged quite adequately by Dan Haren. Boston mustered just 4 hits and 6 total bases against the A's, who got 2 home runs from Frank Thomas to keep pace with Anaheim out west. Every time I see the Big Hurt attempt to run the bases, I honestly contemplate investing in whatever company makes Advil: he has got to be buying in bulk at this point.

    The Yankees supplied some excitement in their completion of a sweep over the Rangers. T.J. Beam (a quadruple-A pitcher if I've ever seen one) and Scott Proctor let the Rangers take the lead in the 8th on 6 consecutive hits. Shawn Chacon shut the Texas rally down, giving the Yankees life heading to the 9th. Derek Jeter singled immediately off of Otsuka, and Jason Giambi followed with one of the most mammoth homers I have ever seen to give the Yankees an 8-7 lead and a sweep on the road.

    What does this all mean? Well, put shortly, the Yankees lead the wild card by half a game over the Twins and White Sox, while the Red Sox lead the Yankees by 1.5 games in the East. The Twins have been playing some incredible baseball of late, and are unbeatable whenever Fransisco Liriano or Johan Santana pitch. Based on the combination of momentum and talent, I'd give them the best shot at the wild card berth. However, you can never count out the Yankees, who have been winning games on guts and guile (and Guiel) all season long. They are no longer the $200 million juggernaut, but they never seem to lose. The Chicago and Boston lineups are just too good to discount, no matter how shaky the pitching gets. As of now, I predict things will end as they currently stand: Yankees in the playoffs.

    From the wire -

    In a very weird move, the Mariners traded for Ben Broussard this afternoon, in turn giving up outfield prospect Shin-Soo Choo. After this trade, the Mariners have stolen both pieces of the Indians' very effective first base platoon from earlier in the season. Eduardo Perez will fill the DH spot against lefties, and Broussard will hit against righties from here on out. Sure, it's an upgrade on Carl Everett, but I don't think it's enough to propel Seattle into the playoffs. With that being understood, the loss of Choo could hurt the organization in the long run. Choo,24, projects to be a decent outfielder, and he is hurting AAA pitching to the tune of .323/.393/.499 this season. Five years down the road, we will be able to compare Choo to the Mariners' CF of the future, Adam Jones, and judge this trade on a larger scale. For now, the Mariners are probably just losing money on the way to a fourth place finish.

Update

2006-07-26T16:00:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    Justin Verlander pitched incredibly well and the Tigers pieced together just enough offense off of C.C. Sabathia to extend their lead in the AL Central. Verlander went 6.2 innings, and was only pulled in order to stay within his 100-pitch limit (97 pitches today). Verlander tallied a career high 8 strikeouts, using his change up and curveball to counter his fastball, which was still brushing 99 MPH in the 6th inning. Joel Zumaya and Todd Jones finished the job for the Tigers. Zumaya had control problems and walked 3 batters, but I was still impressed by his fastball-breaking ball combo.

    From the wire -

    It seems the Mariners have decided to bite the bullet and cut bait on the horrendous Carl Everett experiment. This sort of move almost never takes place because GMs are so reluctant to admit their own mistakes. However, this makes complete and total sense. You're going to pay the guy either way, so you might as well get a little production out of the DH slot while you're at it. An Eduardo Perez/Chris Snelling platoon is not only more effective than Carl Everett, but the oft-injured, oft-hyped Snelling gets some experience in the bigs. Plus, there's always the chance that Snelling isn't a child-beating, ump-bumping crazy person with a decidedly anti-dinosaur agenda.

Leading off (7/26)

2006-07-26T13:17:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    Baseball gets an early start today, as some west coast matchups take the stage alongside the marquee games from the AL Central.

    If the White Sox were going to take a game from the Twins, this might be the time to do it. Maybe. The White Sox normally solid offense gets a chance to rack up the runs on Carlos Silva, who is having an absolutely abysmal 2006. However, the White Sox will need to get a strong outing from Mark Buehrle, who has been anything but a sure thing this season. It's been nearly a month since Buehrle last enjoyed a good outing, and his struggles seem to be running parallel to those of his team.

    From the wire -

    The Yankees picked up Sal Fasano from the Phillies in some sort of waiver-wire deal last night. The Yankees apparently plan on replacing Kelly Stinnett with the exact same player. The addition of Fasano and subtraction of Stinnett will probably end up being pretty inconsequential outside of the fact that the Yankees' modus operandi concerning the backup catcher position seems to be focused on the pursuit of employing the ugliest guys around. In a matter of a few short years, the Bombers have gone from relatively normal (Girardi, Widger, Flaherty) to Leprechaun-ish (Stinnett) to the full-out overweight Pirate look (Fasano). *EDIT* Turns out the Phillies recieve second baseman Hector Made, who is 21 years old and hitting .286/.312/.397 at the high-A level.

The Rundown (7/25)

2006-07-25T23:59:00.000-05:00

From the scoreboard -

    Much has been made of Roger Clemens and the run support he never seems to get. I can only imagine Clemens' frustration, making his overhyped comeback and getting nothing but a free bagel from his teammates every fifth day. It took Clemens 113 pitches, but he went 7 innings tonight and allowed only 2 runs. However, Reds ace Aaron Harang threw 8 even better innings, striking out 6 and refusing to let up a run. The Astros' (lack of) offensive production has moved into the absurd category. Brad Ausmus (.244/.309/.302) and Adam Everett (.243/.301/.330) might be the worst back-to-back hitters in all of Major League Baseball. These guys may play defense well, but they are absolutely killing the offense at the same time. This series is intriguing because it truly is do or die for the Astros. Houston is facing a team in Cincinnati who is running away with the Wild Card while the Astros merely fight to stay afloat. If either Pettitte or Buchholz can't come away with a win, you can scratch the Astros off of the list of contenders.

    Another great game from the NL Central took place in the thin air of Colorado. However thin the air has been, nature has met its match in the Coors Field humidor this season. In what was the 10th(!) shutout of the year in Denver, the Rockies took a tough 1-0 loss. Albert Pujols' 33rd home run stood up for Chris Carpenter, who pitched 7.1 scoreless innings before handing the game over to Randy Flores and Jason Isringhausen. Also toeing the rubber was Jason Jennings, who was the model of efficiency for 9 innings, throwing only 105 pitches and allowing one run. Rockies' pitchers have held the Cardinals' bats to 1 run and 6 hits over the last 18 innings. Whatever they're doing to the ball (or the infield grass), it seems to be working, albeit both ways. However, the Rockies are having their best season in a long while, pushed by some uncharacteristically solid production from guys like Jamey Carroll (.318/..393/.418) and Aaron Cook (3.80 ERA, 35.0 VORP). As uplifting as this all has been, the Rockies don't look to be playoff bound, barring some sort of minor miracle.

    From the wire -

    Royals' GM Dayton Moore has been busy these past few days. This afternoon, his team announced the departure of uber-utilityman Tony Graffanino and the consequent arrival of lefty Jorge De La Rosa from the Brewers. Graffanino was worth more to the Royals as a tradeable commodity than a player, so I can see the motivation behind this deal. De La Rosa is a 25 year-old minor league stud who hasn't been able to locate pitches consistently in the majors (7 BB/9 IP). Being young, De La Rosa still has potential, but I'm not convinced the Royals organization is the best at rearing young pitchers. From the Brewers standpoint, bringing in Graffanino makes sense. They need a stopgap infielder to replace the injured Corey Koskie and J.J. Hardy, and I believe Graffanino's picture is in the dictionary directly beneath the term "stopgap infielder".

Update

2006-07-25T20:36:00.000-05:00

    From the Scoreboard -

    Adam Eaton breezed through the Yankees order for three-plus innings, but once he got up to about 70 pitches, his control fell apart. He lost the strike zone, hit Aaron Guiel with a pitch, and walked home a run before Miguel Cairo singled home two runs to chase Eaton. Ron Mahay is on for the Rangers, who just can't seem to get out of this 4th inning. The Yankees lead 3-2.

    Some of these pitching matchups I was drooling over aren't quite panning out. Glavine vs. Zambrano turned into a home run derby early, and both pitchers ended up giving up 5 earned runs.

Leading off (7/25) -

2006-07-25T17:16:00.000-05:00

    Looking forward -

    Wow. After one look at today's schedule, one thing jumped out at me. This evening's pitching matchups are just unreal. Some of the duels we have lined up are among the best of the season.
The intimidating Carlos Zambrano (3.11) takes on the crafty Tom Glavine (3.52) at Shea.
Youth is served in Atlanta with rookies Anibal Sanchez (3.41) and Chuck James (3.72) taking the hill for the Marlins and Braves, respectively.
The often overlooked Aaron Harang (3.72) takes on Roger Clemens (2.43), who at this point has me seriously wondering if his arm is bionic.
Adam Eaton (-.--) makes his debut for the Rangers against Yankees' ace Mike Mussina (3.39). Eaton's return to the Texas rotation could be what pushes them to an AL West title.
Johan Santana (3.00) and the Twins visit Jose Contreras (3.43) and the White Sox in what is 1.) A crucial game in respect to the AL picture as a whole; 2.) The best matchup of the night; 3.) One of the best matchups of the year.

Those aren't the only pitchers to watch for tonight, as potential rotation-toppers like Kenny Rogers (3.97), Ervin Santana (4.03), Chris Carpenter (2.83), Curt Schilling (3.50), and Roy Halladay (3.08) get the call in other games around the league.

Days like today make me wish the schedule were a bit more spread out. Realistically, I'll only be able to catch bits of each different game as I frantically MLB.tv my way around the baseball landscape this evening. More to come a little later...

    From the wire -

    The Royals continued to make moves today, dealing righty Elmer Dessens for Odalis Perez, two A+ level pitchers, and $8 million. The Odalis Perez era had clearly come to an end earlier this month when he accused the team of treating him like "trash", so dumping him was probably on top of GM Ned Coletti's to-do list. Dessens, by my account an average middle reliever at this point in his career, will add another workable arm to a Dodgers bullpen full of good pieces (Saito, Beimel, Broxton). Perez is owed $7.75 million in '07, and with the Dodgers contributing $8 million plus Dessens' salary, the Royals aren't really losing anything but Dessens' human capital in the deal. Odalis Perez is a 29 year-old who has in the past shown flashes of brilliance tempered by injury trouble and most recently trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark. From the Royals point of view, I understand this move completely. They might as well throw Perez against the wall and see if he sticks, because he'd be hard-pressed to be the worst on the Royals' staff. Perez's ERA is sky high this season (6.83), but his FIP is only 4.82, mainly because his BABIP is sitting at .373, nearly 80 points above his career average. True, he isn't racking up the strikeouts (5 per 9 IP), but the Royals could do worse. The minor leaguers don't jump out at me as being too impressive. They are both 21 and having mediocre seasons in high-A ball. Julio Pimentel has a 5.69 ERA, thanks to 45 BB's in 74.1 IP, and Blake Johnson's ERA is scraping 5, with more hits than innings pitched. According to KC talk radio, these two will pitch the season out at High Desert and move to Wichita for the 2007 season. There really isn't a huge winner in this trade. I suppose I'd give the Royals the edge based on potential, and the Dodgers some points for practicality.

On a baseball-related note, it saddens me to hear about Harold Reynolds' firing. Of all the members of ESPN's baseball stable, Reynolds was one of the few I could consistently tolerate (the others being Gammons, Olney, and Kurkjian). Kruk is loud for loud's sake, Phillips is responsible for this whole A-Rod saga, Destrade is boring, Hershiser is great in the booth but not on the set, Tino Martinez always seems confused, and Brantley is just plain dumb. Rumors from the interweb are saying it's related to either sexual harassment or a disagreement over the network's stupid, pointless, desperate-for-another-controversy A-Rod coverage. I'm hoping it was over the A-Rod issue, because I like Reynolds, but either way, Baseball Tonight has become a little less watchable.

The Rundown (7/24) -

2006-07-25T15:13:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    My attention was turned almost completely to the Yankees-Rangers game tonight, as I always enjoy watching a New York game on the real TV rather than MLB.tv whenever I get the chance. Glancing at the scoreboard, it looks like there were some high scoring affairs this evening.

    The Yankees got an effective if not dominant performance out of Randy Johnson tonight, as he struck out 7 in 6 innings of 2-run ball. Johnson only made a couple mistakes, one of which Mark Teixeira turned into a 420-foot blast. Randy needs to come to the realization that he quite simply does not have the stuff to throw fastballs on the inside half to hitters like Teixeira and Michael Young. For the most part, Randy worked the outside edge with his fastball, and pitched a good game. The Yankees bullpen pitched beautifully, as Proctor, Farnsworth, and Rivera sealed the deal on the Rangers. By the way, I'm definitely thinking that ESPN radar gun is juiced. It clocked Proctor at 100 MPH and Farnsworth at 102. Those guys throw hard, but not that hard.

    I'm half-watching the Padres-Dodgers game right now, and I have to say, my favorite play-by-play in the business is done by Vin Scully. The guy's whole demeanor basically oozes class, he doesn't resort to the incredibly annoying homerism that many use, and the odd facts he digs up on seemingly every hitter never cease to amaze me. At this point, it looks like the Padres are going to win the game on the merit of an absolutely mammoth shot hit by Mike Cameron. Grady Little pulled Derek Lowe from the game in the seventh, and Jonathan Broxton promptly ceded the dinger. Lowe pitched a good game, as did the Padres' Chris Young. It's a shame that Broxton got beaten up, because from what I've seen, he's one of the better young arms in any bullpen. All told, the Dodgers aren't looking too good in the grand scheme of things. They aren't really pitching all that well, and their hitting of late has been anemic. Tonight's Dodger offense has come compliments of two Andre Ethier home runs. The homers are nice, but production from the entire lineup might be nicer. *EDIT* I spoke too soon. The Dodgers have evened the score on a Russell Martin double and a Ricky Ledee single. Scott Linebrink bore the brunt of the assault, blowing his second straight appearance. We'll see what happens from here, as Scott Williamson is getting his first action as a Pad.

    From the wire -

    According to ESPN.com, the Angels have chosen to demote first baseman Kendry Morales. The Morales experiment didn't work out too well, as the 23 year-old hit only .242/.307/.405. Although he played serviceable defense, the offense just wasn't enough. The Angels brought up Curtis Pride, one of the better stories in baseball. I can't imagine Pride is realistically included in the Angels future plans, so I'm not sure where they go from here. I'm thinking they are setting up for a trade or the return of Dallas McPherson. *EDIT* I read this morning in USA Today that the Angels plan on giving more playing time to Robb Quinlan and Howie Kendrick at first base. I'm for giving Kendrick as much playing time as possible, so I think its a good move for the time being.*

    On the tragicomedic side of things, Derrek Lee went to the DL again, this time with 'post-traumatic inflammation' of his right wrist. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus calls it tendinitis. Whatever it is, the Cubs' situation is just pathetic. But hey, at least they picked up a win today, right?

Monday rundown -

2006-07-24T17:58:00.000-05:00

    From the schedule -

    Tigers @ Indians - 6:05
    Bonderman (3.83) vs. Lee (4.86)
    The Tigers are blasting away from the pack in the AL, while the Indians try not to slip into "the Royals zone". At 23, Bonderman is emerging as the ace of the best staff in baseball. Verlander may be posting similar numbers, but watch both pitchers and you'll agree: Bonderman is the more finished product. Bonderman has lowered his ERA in each of his four major league campaigns, and everything seems to be falling into place for the big righty. Cliff Lee seems to be a pitcher who has trouble avoiding contact, meaning his .319 BABIP will predictably result in a pretty mediocre line most nights. The Indians are unbelievable. They are the perfect example of how relying on subpar players to man high-output-expectancy positions can sink a team. Aaron Boone, he of the .241 EQA, has contributed 20 runs below what an average third baseman would, while Jason Michaels is only hitting .267/.366/.429 in the left field slot. I'm not sure the Tribe can unload Boone for anything of value, but I have a feeling the Andy Marte era is about to begin. With a couple of these offensive holes filled, the Indians would be much better off. Travis Hafner is the best hitter in the 2006 American League, while Grady Sizemore is turning into the best center fielder in recent memory. The rotation is made up of three (at least) serviceable guys and one hot prospect in Sowers. If only Marte had heated up earlier in the season...

    From the wire -

    Listening to ESPN radio this afternoon, trade talk is flying around the league. Apparently the White Sox are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano in a move that would make the Chicago lineup seemingly inpenetrable. Replacing either Podsednik or Anderson with Soriano and his improved plate discipline could take the White Sox all the way. *EDIT* In additional White Sox trade news, they grabbed reliever Mike MacDougal from the Royals this afternoon. The Royals get two prospects in this deal: 23 year-old Tyler Lumsden (assigned to AA), and 19 year-old Daniel Cortes (assigned to A). MacDougal fills the spot left vacant by Cliff Politte's recent departure. MacDougal has only pitched 4 innings this season because of an injury, but he's generally a helpful arm out of the pen. He has trouble with the strike zone from time to time, as his career 3.93 BB/9 proves. I have little doubt the 29 year-old will be able fill the role the White Sox have in mind for at least the remainder of the season. This is a great move from the Royals' perspective. Tyler Lumsden has been very good in AA this season, compiling a 2.69 ERA in 20 starts with decent peripherals. He should be able to compete for a spot in the 2007 rotation. Cortes is a 6'5" youngster who has posted promising numbers (96 K's, 107 IP) in A-ball this season. This trade is useful for both sides the way I see it.

    The New York Post reports the Phillies shot down a trade request that would've brought Bobby Abreu to the Yankees on account of the lack of MLB-ready prospects offered in return. Phew. I was overjoyed to hear the Yankees won't be taking on any more albatross contracts in the near future. I only hope the Yankees back down, rather than offer up, say, Philip Hughes for the bazillion dollar Philly outfielder. I say the Yanks should weather the storm with Melky & Co. until Matsui comes back. If and when they reach the postseason, Sheffield will hopefully be ready to make his return, thus leaving the Yankees fully loaded and free of any further financial investments.

Sunday thoughts (7/23)

2006-07-23T22:22:00.000-05:00

    From the scoreboard -

    The best pitching matchup of the day was in Tampa Bay this afternoon, and I sadly didn't catch much of it because of some homework. Erik Bedard continued his string of good outings, allowing only 3 hits in 7 innings against a Tampa Bay team that had plated 27 in the two games prior. Bedard has an ERA of 1.29 through 4 July starts, and his K/BB/HR rates are falling in line with his career totals. Bedard's performance this season looks like the real thing, and I think this 27-year old is going to be decent for a number of years. Scott Kazmir virtually matched Bedard inning-for-inning today, striking out 10 in 7 IP and leaving with the game tied. Chris Ray shut down the D-Rays, getting the final 6 outs with 21 pitches, and the Orioles came out on top to salvage the final third of the series.

    In tonight's action, the Braves edged out the Phillies to take the second of three. From what I saw, Brett Myers was nothing short of dominant through the first 8 innings. Myers made it into the eighth inning without going to a three-ball count, but slipped up in the ninth and got tagged with the loss. Myers pitched the way he has most of the times I've seen him: flat-out well. He doesn't mince pitches; he goes straight at the hitter with a nice fastball combo and a mean curve. Tonight's game was more an indictment of Charlie Manuel than Myers (after all, Myers has had his fair share of run-ins with the law recently), as Manuel trotted him out for the ninth in a tie game instead of turning to his fairly reliable bullpen. In short, big mistake. Wickman worked his first inning as a Brave, and he looked sharp, locating the fastball on the edge of the zone. No matter how Wickman-ish he looks down the stretch, chances are it'll be better than looking Reitsma-ish.

    From the wire -

    A completely sensical but basically inconsequential trade went down today, as Sandy Alomar Jr. was sent to the White Sox for AA reliever B.J. LaMura. The White Sox were not happy with Chris Widger's (.184/.264/.263) production. Widger found out the hard way that there is, indeed, a threshold of offensive ineptitude that even backup catchers are not allowed to flirt with. Alomar, if he can stay healthy, is a much better choice. True, he's 40, but he's cheap and hitting .328 (with no BB's). The Dodgers haven't really had a use for Alomar since the pickup of Toby Hall, who may be the league's most overpaid reserve backstop. However, they may eventually have a use for the reliever LaMura, who has posted decent numbers at every stop in the minors, but is already 25 and repeating AA. He's absolutely torching AA to the tune of a 1.69 ERA with 11.4 K/9, so maybe they figure he's got a few innings of big-league relief work in him.

The Nightcap (7/22)

2006-07-23T01:07:00.000-05:00

Game thoughts -

I watched a good deal of the Rangers-White Sox game tonight, and came away impressed with how crisp the game looked overall. Both starting pitchers had to work around 4 walks, but the bullpens were eventually handed a 1-1 game. Something had to give, and that something ended up being Bobby Jenks. Michael Young poked a base hit through in the 9th to give the Rangers the lead and the victory over Jenks and the Sox. One thing I noted was that the White Sox have really had a tough go of it schedule-wise of late. After a tough Boston series, they headed to the All-Star break (when most of them made the trip to Pittsburgh, deservedly or not) only to come back to face the Yankees, Tigers, and Rangers. Next up are the Twins, who I can envision exploiting the Sox inconsistent starting pitching. They've been close in most of the losses over this tough stretch, and they still look like a playoff team to me. If the bottom of the rotation doesn't get thrown around too often, I think they've still got a legit shot at the postseason and more.

What has gotten into the Reds? After making that suicidal trade, Wayne Krivsky and his boys have been winning and winning often. In fact, the team is 7-2 since the deal everyone considered a debacle. Today's hero was Ryan Freel, who hit two home runs, including a go-ahead trip in the 8th. They got 1.1 good innings out of Bill Bray today, and they surprisingly haven't been missing Felipe Lopez or Austin Kearns all that much. On the other side of the box score, things aren't looking up for the Brewers, who have lost 9 of 11 and find themselves 6 games out of the wild card. Tomo Ohka is back, and Ben Sheets is supposedly hot on his heels, but I think the season may not be worth salvaging.

Transaction thoughts -

The Padres acquired reliever Scott Williamson from the Cubs today. In return, the Cubs picked up two minor league pitchers, Fabian Jimenez and Joel Santo. I'm glad to see this deal go through because I was afraid Williamson would wind up with the Yankees in the next few days. Williamson isn't a bad pitcher, he just has an awful spotty injury history. If memory serves me correctly, Williamson uses a good split-finger pitch to rack up his K's. According to FanGraphs, he's struck out over 10 per 9 IP over the course of his career. He is walking nearly 5 hitters every 9 IP this season, but his high K rate has garnered him a 3.46 FIP. Williamson is a free agent after this season, so the investment is small on the part of San Diego. I'm thinking the Padres are going to deal one of their coveted set-up men (read: Scott Linebrink) for some help at 3B. Williamson provides them with an adequate replacement in the pen. The Cubs recieve two A-level pitchers, who, according to ESPN's Keith Law, "are both a long way away from being a long way away from being prospects." Santo (5.38) is 22, and has more walks than strikeouts. Jimenez (4.43) is 19, and peripherally looks about the same.

Big day for Aramis -

2006-07-22T18:09:00.000-05:00

Looks like Aramis Ramirez had fun out there today, smacking two home runs for the second straight game. The Cubs still lost, however, as Livan Hernandez notched a quality start and a win. Hopefully Scott Williamson's gruesome line is enough to scare the Yankees out of the running for his services.

Speaking of the Yanks, I'm keeping tabs on them via MLB Gameday, and things are looking good. Top 8, Yankees lead 5-4. Judging by the box score, Wang had decent enough stuff. He gave up 10 hits, but threw only 90 pitches in 6 innings while managing to rack up a 15/2 G/F ratio. Looks like he's in line for the win if the bullpen can muster 6 more outs. C'mon Farnsworth...let's throw some strikes this time around.

The newest, and my favorite ESPN blogger, Keith Law, has an interesting take on the Hillenbrand trade.

Daily Preview (7/22)

2006-07-22T13:23:00.000-05:00

Games of the day -
Cubs @ Nationals - This is why Saturdays always frustrate me. Calling this the game of the day, much less the week is comedic at best. However, thanks to the fine people at FOX Sports, this will be the only baseball available to myself and countless others this afternoon. Instead of Tigers vs. A's (potentially playoff teams), Red Sox vs. Mariners (Felix Hernandez), Yankees vs. Jays (divisional race), or Braves vs. Phillies (youngster James vs. recreational boxer Myers), we're treated to (get ready to be excited): Sean Marshall vs. Livan Hernandez. I've got no qualms with watching Marshall; he's a guy I can see being a good starter down the road once he learns to throw the curveball for a strike consistently. I do, however, have serious issues with the idea that I might be forced to watch Livan Hernandez walk Neifi Perez on four pitches. On several occasions. On a more serious note, imagine how horrible the Cubs would be without the over-their-heads performances they've recieved from Michael Barrett (.337/.401/.540) and Jacque Jones (.292/.320/.502). Any way you slice it, this matchup isn't pretty.

Padres @ Giants - Later tonight, the Padres fight to keep their heads above the water against the surging Giants. Woody Williams, who, according to MLB.com has only walked two in his last 17+ IP, gets the start against Jason Schmidt, who has struggled of late. There have been trade rumors circling around Schmidt, but I'd be surprised if the Giants, 0.5 games out of first, want to trade their staff ace. Any movement on the Schmidt front would be the equivalent of raising a white flag, despite the fact that the team could probably do without Schmidt by sliding Brad Hennessey and his 21.3 VORP into the rotation. There's no denying the Giants might want to start preparing for the day that Alou, Finley, and Bonds all keel over.

Thoughts - I'm not surprised by Derrick Turnbow's collapses at this point. He's just now showing what I've been seeing in him for a long time: a complete inability to locate a breaking ball. If the Brewers are interested in the wild card, they need to make a change. Hey, maybe Turnbow can find a place in Baltimore's rotation or something.

*EDIT* Looks like my region is getting Mets vs. Astros as the FOX Game of the Week. It's definitely better than Cubs/Nats/"Lou Piniella presents: senility personified".

The Rundown (7/21) -

2006-07-22T00:43:00.000-05:00

    Games of the Night -

    Braves 5, Phillies 6 - The Braves may have added a piece to their bullpen, but they ended up getting the same result tonight as Ken Ray gave up 3 runs in the eighth to cede the game to the Phils. Lidle was strong, tossing 8 innings and only issuing one free pass. It will be interesting to see how these teams act as we barrel towards the deadline. They are both within shouting distance of the wild card, and though everyone is hyping the Braves, I think the Phillies are just as talented. If the Phillies do end up selling, I think a contender would be well served by picking up Lidle. He's better than most of the trash being offered (Livan Hernandez?), and his contract is up after the season. Anyway, the Braves fall despite three home runs, and the wild card puzzle gets even more jumbled.

     Cardinals 2, Dodgers 0 - I'm watching as this one winds down, and I'm stunned that the Dodgers are falling apart like this. Jeff Kent and Bill Mueller may be injured, but with decent spare parts like Ramon Martinez and Olmedo Saenz on the bench and a good young player in Willy Aybar, you'd think they could scrape together some runs. However, Jeff Suppan somehow managed to put together 7 shutout innings, despite being by all accounts not an impressive pitcher. The Cardinals are on top of the Central essentially by default, and I can't see anyone unseating them down the stretch.

    Transactions -

    The Giants announced their acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand tonight, and I, personally, love the move. After enduring the failure that was Lance Niekro's career, the Giants are in need of a corner infielder with some pop. Hillenbrand will fit nicely at first base, and he won't have to complain to/nearly come to blows with his superiors, seeing as there is no DH in San Fran. I'm surprised the Padres didn't pick him up, but hey, not everyone can always make the right moves. On a related note, the Giants moved within a half game of the aforementioned Padres tonight with a victory. On the Blue Jays side, they also give up Vinnie Chulk, while adding 24 year-old reliever Jeremy Accardo. I've liked what I've seen from Accardo in the past, so I actually think this may work out well for both squads.

    Assorted thoughts -
    The Wichita Wranglers game was a fun time, as usual. Alex Gordon showed some great plate discipline, walking several times, stealing a couple of bases, and scoring multiple times. The Wranglers defeated the Springfield Cardinals 4-2, and as an added bonus, I sat directly behind former/in limbo/ex-Royal Zack Greinke. He seemed like a good guy, and I made sure to wish him luck in the future as we left the park.

    As I see the Red Sox pulling further and further away, I'm having more and more difficulty believing the Yankees are playoff-bound. Time for Matsui to get healthy, and time for the White Sox to start losing some more games.

Evening Preview (7/21)

2006-07-21T18:35:00.000-05:00

Games of the Night -

    I'm a little late on the preview tonight because of some connection problems, but here goes:

    The underrated Dan Haren takes on phenom Justin Verlander in the first game of the big A's-Tigers series. The Athletics are completely devoid of anything resembling an offense this season, so credit must be given to Zito and Haren for lending the team some stability. Verlander brings his unimpressive peripherals and undeniable results to the table tonight to kick off a set of games that could really make or break the Athletics' season, depending on how the Angels fare.

    *As I type this, A-Rod strikes out looking, stranding Damon at third. He is really not helping his situation any.*

    Later this evening, the Padres will try to distance themselves from the pack in the NL West as they play the second of four in San Fransisco. Enigmatic Jake Peavy will try to silence the Giants' own enigma, Barry Bonds, while Matt Cain will bring an explosive fastball and not much else to the mound. In my opinion, the Padres could run away with the West by signing Shea Hillenbrand. He's not horrible with the glove, is a proven commodity at the plate, and his name isn't Mark Bellhorn.

    *A-Rod does a weird quasi-dive and somehow avoids fielding a pretty routine grounder down the line, allowing Reed Johnson to pick up a double. A single and a walk have turned this into a bases-loaded, no-out situation for Glaus. Make that a 'two-run single situation' for Glaus. Wow, A-Rod, you've outdone yourself this time.*

Highlights (7/20)

2006-07-21T15:43:00.000-05:00

D'Backs 5, Dodgers 2 - Hendrickson vs. Webb played out as planned, with Webb looking dominant, getting 18 groundball outs in eight innings, while Hendrickson looked middling in picking up 11 grounders and a loss. The real story from this game was Carlos Quentin. In his first Major League Game, the 23 year-old outfielder delivered, hitting a two-run shot to give the D'Backs some insurance late. Quentin has established himself as much as humanly possible at AAA, hitting .289/.424/.487 this season, and the move to get him some playing time is well overdue. It's great to see a team realizing that they can compete for the division while at the same time giving young players some service time. Hopefully the Diamondbacks can make a run down the stretch, bolstered by rising stars Quentin, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson.

Yankees 4, Blue Jays 5 - Despite the fact that the Blue Jays came away with the win, I was more impressed with Mike Mussina than Roy Halladay. Halladay had his moments, specifically when he blazed his cutter in on the lefties' hands in a Rivera-like fashion. However, Mussina just completely shut down the Jays for five strong innings until A-Rod literally threw the game away. In my mind, this game really reinforced the adage that you can't give good lineups extra outs. As an aside, Mussina really is a different pitcher with runners on base. He must really rely on his funky windup to fool the hitter. All of the stats back this up, as Mussina's microscopic .560 OPS against skyrockets to .822 with runners on base.

I'm headed out to take in a Wichita Wranglers (AA)(KC) game tonight in the (finally) not so oppressive Kansas weather, but I'll be back with my games of the night before then.

Games of the night, happenings of the day - July 20th

2006-07-20T18:23:00.000-05:00

Games of the Night -

For starters, we've got Mussina and the Yanks vs. Halladay and the newly Hillenbrand-less Jays. Mussina has looked anywhere from sharp to brilliant at times this season, and Halladay is trucking along, continuing to put up the results we've come to expect from one of the best in the game. Oddly enough, Halladay's strikeout rate is down this season, but he is doing a good job keeping the ball in the park, while picking up almost no walks. I can't see the loss of Hillenbrand as a huge loss for Toronto. With Hinske, Glaus, Overbay, and Zaun, they have plenty of corner infielder/DH types hanging around. With all of those bats, John Gibbons has the opportunity to be pretty creative with the lineup card.

Two good young pitchers get the call on a sweltering night in Kansas City. Ervin Santana, fast becoming one of the most consistent starters in the AL, takes on Jimmy Gobble, in my estimation the best pitcher on the Royals' staff. It will be interesting to see how Gobble withstands the 100 degree heat, as it seems he's usually only good for three or four innings on most nights.

Looking to the NL, there's an intriguing matchup of groundball pitchers in Brandon Webb and Mark Hendrickson. Hendrickson hasn't been bad of late, but he'll have to work for a win tonight against Webb, who has been untouchable this season.

Transaction wrap -

The Braves try to steady their bullpen situation by picking up Bob Wickman. I don't see anything reprehensible here, as I assume they'll just pay him the (about)$2M remaining on his contract without losing too much else. Tangibly, they do lose Max Ramirez, a 21 year old C/DH who is batting .285/.408/.445 in Low A ball. He isn't worth anything to the Braves, who have McCann and Saltamacchia(sp?) at catcher. A little less tangibly, they lose those painful, painful innings I like to call Sosa-time, when Jorge Sosa trots out from the bullpen, seemingly tries to get sent to the minors, and then hits a home run. The Indians lose Wickman and his remaining contract, which isn't a bad thing, and gain save opportunities for Fausto Carmona, the better investment of innings. I think both teams came out for the better with this deal.

Assorted thoughts -

I caught most of the rubber game between
Chicago and Detroit this afternoon, and it failed to disappoint. Kenny
Rogers was good if not overpowering, while Contreras looked like I wish
he would've looked in pinstripes: like an elite pitcher. Marcus Thames'
takeout slide to break up the double play in the 7th was excellent, it
really seemed to give the Tigers some serious momentum. You've got to
love an old-school, hard-nosed play like that. Speaking of hard-nosed,
I've been impressed by Joel Zumaya every time I've seen him, but today
he was just on another plane altogether. He touched 101 MPH several
times, and showed off an electric breaking ball that turned Jermaine
Dye into stone. Zumaya and Todd Jones finished what Rogers started, and the Tigers ultimately proved their worth by taking the series. I hope Zumaya continues to have success, because he is
truly one of the more exciting players in the game today.

Time to take in some Yankees baseball.

First things first...

2006-07-20T15:35:00.000-05:00

To introduce myself, I am a baseball fan, Yankees fan, and student at the University of Kansas (usually in that order, sadly, and at the expense of my GPA). From April to...well, April, I think, live, and breathe baseball. What can I say - I'm hopelessly in love with and addicted to the game. In my estimation, there's really nothing better than sitting down for a few hours to enjoy a game, whether it be at home or at the ballpark. In the rare event that I'm not watching baseball or studying, I write sports at the University Daily Kansan. Who knows if I'll be able to keep up the blogging, but it's worth a try. I can't guarantee this will be updated much if regularly at all, but I'll try to stay on top of it, while at the same time spewing out some reasonable thoughts on baseball.